Bollin Eric looks a real Northern star

13 April 2012

Forgive one below par effort and take a flyer on Bollin Eric in a spectacular King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes at Ascot tomorrow.

The first point to make about tomorrow's £750,000 contest is that victory for any one of at least eight horses would come as no surprise. With that in mind the best starting point is to identify which horses look underpriced at current odds.

First in line is the Derby winner Kris Kin. Granted, he's trained by a master in Sir Michael Stoute and ridden by the relentless Kieren Fallon, but there wasn't enough in his grinding Epsom win to suggest that he's a vintage Derby winner and stall three may not be ideal for a lazy colt who takes time to warm to his task.

Next comes Alamshar, who followed an honourable third at Epsom by ending Dalakhani's winning spree with a courageous effort in the Irish Derby.

John Oxx's colt can take his revenge on Kris Kin, but Dalakhani would surely have won at the Curragh had his rider Christophe Soumillon not left his tactical brain back in Chantilly and the 3-1 or thereabouts about Alamshar is no bargain for a race which has fallen to the older brigade in six of the last seven years.

So which horses are overpriced?

Warrsan and Millenary are proven Group 1 performers yet make only limited appeal despite their long odds, while all the fancy prices about the South African raider Victory Moon have vanished on the back of a sustained gamble since his unlucky fifth in the Coral-Eclipse at Sandown three weeks ago.

The mercurial Grandera still has the ability to trouble all if he decides to put his best foot forward again, but Falbrav, Nayef, Sulamani and Bollin Eric look the quartet to concentrate on.

Sulamani is one of the real wild cards in this line-up. An unlucky second to Marienbard in last year's Arc and a withering late run to mow down the high-class Ange Gabriel in the Dubai Sheema Classic back in March proved beyond doubt that he's top class. The forecast rain will also help.

However, that trademark late surge never materialised in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud last month and the messages from the Godolphin camp this week have signalled hope as opposed to confidence.

Nayef 's record over the last three years is very difficult to fault, while his record at Ascot is even more impressive.

Think back to this day last year, when it took every ounce of Fallon's strength on Golan to deny him in a humdinger of a finish.

An emphatic success in the Prince of Wales's Stakes at the Royal meeting last month proved that he's still at the peak of his powers, while his battling second behind Luca Cumani's Falbrav in the Eclipse was achieved despite the fact that he was slightly hampered by an errant pacemaker.

After much headscratching in the Cumani camp Falbrav has been allowed to take his chance. A draw out wide in stall one looks less than ideal, though, and with an extra two furlongs to cover and rain in the offing there has to be a chance that the admirable Nayef will reverse the Sandown form.

Indeed, Nayef will be very difficult to keep out of the first three again, but in a wide-open race there could yet be a turnup via Bollin Eric.

It isn't hard to understand why Tim Easterby's powerful colt has been largely ignored in the build-up.

Being trained in Yorkshire by a man who shuns publicity hardly helps oil the hype machine, while the fact remains that that no northerntrained horse has ever won the King George.

A lacklustre effort when favourite for the Group 2 contest won by Millenary at Newmarket last time provides another reason why punters have swerved him, but look back to the Hardwicke Stakes here last month and Bollin Eric's prospects become a good deal rosier.

Bollin Eric shouldered a 5lb penalty for last year's St Leger win that day and ran a heroic race, quickening to look an assured winner a furlong out only to find the late thrust of Indian Creek giving him little time to respond. A reproduction of that form will be essential to get into the shakeup but with Izdiham and Leadership set to ensure a searching gallop Bollin Eric will certainly have the race run to suit him.

Backing him in a race as hot as this one plainly demands a belief in the old adage that you should always excuse a good horse one below-par effort.

At 16-1 or bigger he looks a tempting each-way proposition.

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