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The Conservative candidate for London Mayor must have no links with the previous government if the party is to stand any chance of winning, new polling suggests.
The survey is bad news for former Home Secretary and current shadow cabinet member James Cleverly, who has been tipped as one of the Tory big beasts considering a run for City Hall.
Olympian and former MP Lord Sebastian Coe has also been suggested as a potential contender.
A candidate with experience of business and policing would be best placed to help Kemi Badenoch’s party gain more votes when the next mayoral election takes place in 2028, the poll also found.
Sir James Cleverly has been tipped as a potential Tory London mayoral candidate to take on Sir Sadiq KhanCity Hall/UK ParliamentThe Conservatives have yet to begin the official selection process for their next challenger to Sir Sadiq Khan.
Labour’s Mayor of London is currently serving his third term in office and is yet to confirm whether he will run for a fourth time.
Polling carried out by an exploratory campaign for potential Tory candidate Festus Akinbusoye has however suggested the public might be more likely to back an outsider than an established Conservative name.
Mr Akinbusoye is a Westminster Conservative councillor and the former police and crime commissioner for Bedfordshire who now runs a facilities management business.
A representative poll of 2,021 Londoners, carried out by Opinium between July 10 and 17, found that being a former Tory minister was not an asset for a prospective London mayoral candidate.
Festus AkinbusoyeHandoutThe poll tested a series of candidate traits with voters and found that the city would be less likely to support someone who had a cabinet in the chaotic Conservative governments before 2024.
Voters would also be more likely to back a candidate who had not previously been an MP and who had run a successful business, the survey found.
Just over half of those surveyed, 52 per cent, said they would be more likely to vote for a Conservative candidate with experience of tackling crime and policing, compared with just 11 per cent who would be less likely to support such a candidate.
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Elsewhere, the polling found the Tories might have room to grow their vote across the political spectrum.
Some 29 per cent of likely Reform voters said they would consider voting for the Conservatives, and another 27 per cent said they might consider it.
Reform UK’s London mayoral candidate Laila CunninghamGettyEx Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) prosecutor and former Westminster councillor, Laila Cunningham, has been chosen as Reform’s mayoral candidate.
Of Labour voters, 20 per cent said they would consider a Tory vote while 21 per cent said they might.
Issues of most salience to Londoners, and over which the mayor has control, included policing, crime and housing.
In a wider assessment of public opinion about the capital, the poll found that a narrow majority of Londoners, 51 per cent, believe the city is heading in the wrong direction, compared with 34 per cent who think it is heading in the right direction.
A spokesperson for Mr Akinbusoye’s exploratory committee said: “Without mentioning names, this poll tested different candidate profiles and found that Londoners are more drawn to a Conservative candidate combining policing experience, business credentials and a fresh profile than one defined by previous Westminster experience.
“It is the latest evidence in support of Kemi Badenoch's argument that the Conservative Party must renew itself by selecting candidates capable of rebuilding trust.”
Other prospective candidates who stand to benefit from the results of the polling could include members of the London Assembly.
Susan Hall, the leader of the London Conservatives, is understood to be unlikely to stand as a candidate again after losing to Lord Khan in 2024.
She said: “The background of the candidate will always be secondary to how well they understand the role and the London Assembly.
“We need a mayoral candidate who can connect with voters, who understands how to use the levers of power that will be available to them and who has a vision for a better London.
“We must save London from another four years of useless Labour mayors and our candidate needs to know how they’re going to communicate that mission.”
A Conservative Party spokesman said: “Sadiq Khan has been a woeful Mayor of London.
“Only the Conservatives have consistently held him to account for his failures on housing, crime and transport.
“We will select our candidate in due course.”
A London Labour spokesperson said: “The Tories let Londoners down for 14 years while in government. Families were left worse off and public services brought to their knees.
“Tory figures attempting to rehabilitate themselves is as laughable as it is insulting. They haven’t even apologised for the mess they inflicted on our capital.”