'Shy' Tory voters improve Labour's poll performance

Pledge: David Cameron today set out a goal of “full employment”

Joe Murphy @JoeMurphyLondon|Political Editor

19 January 2015

Ed Miliband's election hopes are being routinely over-estimated in opinion polls, according to the analyst who first spotted the “shy Tories” phenomenon in the Nineties.

Robert Hayward believes that Labour’s vote share is shown between two and four percentage points higher than it really is.

And the Conservative and Green Party shares are, he believes, between one and two points lower in the polls than in reality. If correct, polls that show the parties level-pegging should show the Conservatives with a slim lead of three to six per cent.

Mr Hayward was the elections guru who advised John Major not to panic in 1992 when polls showed Labour leader Neil Kinnock was set to win power.

When the votes were counted, the Conservatives led by 7.6 per cent and Sir John achieved the highest popular vote recorded, albeit with a majority of only 21.

Mr Hayward, a former Tory MP, has studied last year’s local and European elections, as well as by-elections, and concluded history may repeat itself.

He told the Evening Standard: “The balance of probability based on these 2014 election results is that in any given poll the Labour vote is overstated and that the Green and Tory votes are understated.”

The term “shy Tories” was adopted by pollsters to explain how they misread the public. Mr Hayward thinks there could be other explanations for any mismatch, including that Labour supporters are less likely to vote.

The Prime Minister today attacked Labour “myths” that Britain is only creating low-paid, part-time jobs.

Ahead of a speech pledging a goal of “full employment” Mr Cameron told the Standard that “95 per cent” of new jobs in the past year were full-time, and two-thirds since 2010 were in “higher skilled occupations, which generally command a higher wage”.

He boasted: “The UK is attracting more investment than any other EU country and is now exporting more cars than Germany.”

However, shadow chancellor Ed Balls said working people on middle and low incomes were “seeing wages stagnating” and living standards were down.

@JoeMurphyLondon

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