As Canada and the United States watch the United Kingdom's political scene, the upcoming Clacton‑on‑Sea by‑election featuring Nigel Farage may have indirect implications for trans‑Atlantic trade. Both Canada and the United States monitor UK elections because post‑Brexit trade agreements often hinge on the stability of the British Parliament. A strong showing for Farage could bolster the Reform Party's voice in future negotiations on the Canada‑United Kingdom Trade Continuity Agreement and the United States‑United Kingdom trade framework.
The Candidates
A gentle breeze was forecast for Clacton‑on‑Sea as voters go to the polls. It may just help Nigel Farage in a most bizarre of by‑elections. The Reform UK leader needs to get out the vote in the Essex constituency to justify quitting as the local MP just over a month ago and triggering a by‑election expected to cost well north of £200,000.
Families on the beach in Clacton‑on‑Sea where a by‑election is set to take place on August 13, after Reform UK Leader Nigel Farage resigned as the constituency's MP. The breeze may keep temperatures down to 26C, rather than spiralling to heatwave heights, as Farage supporters seek to persuade voters to brave the global warming to go to polling stations.
The party's activists were being deployed from dawn in a sign of how seriously Mr Farage is taking the contest, even though his main opponent is Count Binface after the four other main parties decided not to take part. Some Reform campaigners were even encouraged to holiday in Clacton to boost Mr Farage's field operations, with others diverted from the Greater Manchester mayoral contest to the Essex constituency.
Historical Comparisons
In total, there are 34 candidates for the Clacton poll, with the result expected to be announced possibly as late as 6am on Friday. Ian Davidson, chief executive of Tendring District Council, with the lengthy statement of persons nominated for the Clacton by‑election.
Mr Farage will win and be returned to Parliament, but he faces two hurdles, according to experts, which he needs to overcome to avoid his gamble being seen to have backfired as he has been left fighting a two‑horse race against Count Binface, the space and electoral warrior character created by comedian Jon Harvey.
He has sought to portray the contest as a battle between himself and "the Establishment", which is tricky, to say the least, when his opponent walks the streets with a bin on his head. So, Mr Farage needs to show that the voters of Clacton are firmly behind him, by turning out in large numbers.
Reform sources believe he needs to get to within five, possibly ten, percentage points of a normal by‑election turnout. At the Runcorn and Helsby by‑election last spring, which Reform won, turnout was just over 46%.
Polling expert and Tory peer Lord Hayward points to two comparables. Conservative MP David Davis resigned in 2008 as MP for Haltemprice and Howden, over the Labour government's plans to detain terror suspects for up to 42 days. In the following by‑election on July 10 which both Labour and the Liberal Democrats did not contest, Mr Davis, now knighted, won with a majority of 15,355, or 72% of the vote.
The second comparable is Douglas Carswell who defected from the Tories to UKIP in 2014 and stood down as MP for Clacton, seeking a return to Parliament at the subsequent by‑election in October. He gained 21,113 votes, or 59.2%, with turnout being 64.2%.
Both the Tories and Labour contested the by‑election. Lord Hayward believes these results set benchmarks for Mr Farage of around 70% of the vote and the backing of some 21,000 constituents. "He has to be at their level or above," he said. "If he exceeds them he will be in a stronger position. If the turnout is low, he has got to explain why it's low."
Gawain Towler, a long‑time Farage ally, believes the Reform leader's decision to resign may be a "stroke of strategic genius". Mr Farage has faced a probe by Parliament's standards commissioner into a £5 million donation. He denies any wrongdoing.
If he is found to have broken the rules for MPs he could face another by‑election under the recall mechanism, if suspended from the Commons for at least ten days. Mr Towler's argument is that by quitting as an MP, Mr Farage will make the prospect of a second by‑election less likely.
The punishment for erring MPs is decided by the Standards Committee which could decide to suspend Mr Farage, if found in breach of the rules, for just shy of ten days. Such a move would see him rapped but avoid a re‑run of the current by‑election which Mr Farage would no doubt also win easily.
There are two other downsides to Mr Farage's decision to quit. First, it has exposed him to ridicule by his political opponents, which has been reported around the world, as the contest turned into a showdown against Count Binface. In a fascinating insight from Clacton, some Tory voters, though, are planning to switch to Mr Farage as they want a serious politician to be their MP rather than one of the other minor contenders.
Second, the furore of the by‑election has shone a greater spotlight on the financial affairs of Mr Farage and Reform. He has shrugged off controversies over many years. But he is not believed to have calculated that the other parties would not stand in Clacton. So, he may have misjudged matters.