The Grillini could add Five Star chaos to parliament

This morning my friend Enrico called around in a blizzard on his way to the polling station. He admitted he was one of the five million Italians still undecided on how to vote, even though the polls were now open.

Enrico’s no mug: a bright chap with a degree in political science. So it might come as a surprise that he was vacillating between the moderate, centre-Left, pro-Europe Democratic Party and a chaotic protest movement lead by ranting-demagogue comedian Beppe Grillo, who has eclipsed Silvio Berlusconi as the populist choice.

Some pundits have predicted that Grillo’s Five Star Movement, which intends to rip open Italian politics “like a tin of tuna”, could finish as the second largest party — with more than 100 MPs. A series of triumphant rallies in the last days of the campaign suggest the pundits might be right.

Rather pompously I told Enrico that Italy needed “good politics not anti-politics”. But a quick look at Italian newspaper readers’ comments online shows foreign correspondents, this one included, have underestimated Grillo’s appeal. Italian politics is so squalid, its politicians so venal, and the scandals so frequent, that by promising to rip up the system, he has touched a chord.

What 120 Grillo MPs — dubbed “Grillini” — will achieve in parliament with no relevant experience, or how they’ll resist joining the gravy train with their establishment peers, are questions Grillo is yet to answer. But if the eurosceptic Five Star Movement has done as well as many have predicted when the polls close at 3pm today, it will prove a decisive or chaotic factor in parliament, at a time when the Euromafia in Brussels and Berlin is keen for stable, EU-friendly leadership in Rome.

Some analysts have suggested that post-poll instability or the election of a eurosceptic government might be a blessing in disguise if it prompted an all-out attack by speculators. This they say, would force no-growth Italy to go for a euro bailout and a restructuring of its colossal €2 trillion public debt.

Enrico didn’t tell me how he was going to vote. But more than a few cynics who harbour a visceral dislike of Grillo and his anti-politics say that for things to really get better in Italy, they may have to get a lot worse first. This theory might be put to the test sooner than they imagined.