Spread-betters punt on Blair

FEROCIOUS attacks in the last week on Tony Blair's honesty may have disrupted Labour's campaign, but they have been shrugged off by City punters who are risking millions on the result of the General Election.

With just two days to go before polling day, spread-betting bookies are still pricing in a Labour majority in the new Parliament of 77-83 seats.

This is higher than the majority of 50 or so they implied at the start of the campaign - albeit well down on the party's majority of 166 in 2001.

Karim Fatih, at IG Index, said: 'The big hitters have been out in force to back Labour over the Bank Holiday.' Spreads on the number of seats Labour will win in the new Parliament have edged up as a result.

Fixed-odds bookmakers are quoting prices that suggest they have no doubt over which party will win. Ladbrokes was quoting Labour yesterday at 1/33 on to take the largest number of seats, with the Conservatives 10/1 against.

Warren Lush, at Ladbrokes, said: 'We took a bet of £250 on the Liberal Democrats to win the election at 150/1 against. This is steeper odds than the 100/1 we are quoting against Charles Kennedy's son, Donald, becoming Prime Minister later in life.'

Spread betting, meanwhile, is attracting even more bets than it did in 2001, with several firms reporting a steep rise in political business. Spread betting exchange Cantor Spreadfair was quoting Labour to take 362.5-362.8 seats on Thursday, with the Conservatives winning 189.2-191 and the LibDems 66.5-67.

One bookmaker said that a well-known professor of politics yesterday made a £500-a-seat 'down-bet' on LibDemseats from 66. This brought to an end several days of bullish betting on prospects for Charles Kennedy's party, in the wake of publication of the legal advice on the Iraq war.

Mike Smithson, editor of Politicalbetting.com, a website that publishes hundreds of comments from punters each day, said: 'As we get close to the election, unsophisticated gamblers are coming in, much influenced by Labour's lead in the opinion polls.' Smithson predicted, however, the Tories would end up doing rather better than their current spreads suggest.

Some contributors to his website are not so confident, though. One wrote: 'Michael Howard, as they say, is toast, as I suspect is my stupid bet on the Tories getting over 203 seats.'

Two of the most intriguing markets for spread and fixed-odds betting are those for the individual seats currently held by Tory Shadow Chancellor Oliver Letwin, in Dorset West, and by Labour's Oona King, in Bethnal Green and Bow, London.

Ladbrokes was quoting King as 1/2 on to beat George Galloway, candidate for the anti-Iraq War Respect Party. Letwin was locked together at 5/6 on with his LibDem challenger Justine McGuinness.