Global seismic activity in 2026 is tracking close to the levels expected by the United States Geological Survey (USGS). The agency records 11 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or greater so far this year – the 11th such event struck Indonesia’s capital on Saturday with a magnitude of 7.7, and it is also the fifth magnitude‑7 quake since June.
In addition, there have been 34 earthquakes in the 6.0‑6.9 range. USGS forecasts roughly 16 major earthquakes in an average year – typically fifteen in the magnitude‑7 band and one of magnitude 8 or higher. The agency classifies a magnitude 5.3 event as “moderate” and a magnitude 6.3 as “strong”. Earthquakes Canada uses the term “major” for quakes between magnitude 7 and 7.9, and acknowledges that any event of magnitude 6 or above can cause large‑scale damage.
John Cassidy, a seismologist with Natural Resources Canada, noted that “We’re three‑quarters of the way through the year; we’ve had 11 earthquakes when the average would suggest 12.” He added that the current tally is essentially “just about on average.”
The primary driver of these large events is the movement of tectonic plates. In regions such as Indonesia and Canada’s west coast, oceanic plates are forced beneath continental plates, creating a collision that accumulates stress over decades. Plate motion of five to seven centimetres per year – roughly the growth rate of fingernails – can translate into five to seven metres of displacement over a century, sufficient to generate a magnitude‑seven earthquake.
Canada alone has recorded 2,819 earthquakes this year, according to Earthquakes Canada. Professor Robert Shcherbakov of Western University explained that an earthquake’s depth and the quality of local construction heavily influence the damage it causes. Shallow quakes produce stronger ground shaking, while well‑engineered or retrofitted buildings, such as those common in Japan, can withstand tremors far better than structures in many other regions.
Recent high‑impact quakes have underscored the human cost of seismic events. On 24 June, a magnitude 7.2 tremor struck Venezuela’s northern coast, followed 39 seconds later by a magnitude 7.5 shock that left more than 6,000 dead. A magnitude 7.1 earthquake hit Japan’s southern island of Kyushu on 28 July, killing 38 people. On 10 August, a magnitude 7.4 quake rattled Colombia, resulting in nearly 300 fatalities.
Despite the severity of these individual disasters, the overall count of large earthquakes remains within normal expectations. Shcherbakov described the year as “a normal year from this point of view on the moment.” Cassidy, however, warned that the true concern lies in the proximity of these events to densely populated and vulnerable areas, which has amplified their impact.
Worldwide, the National Earthquake Information Center estimates roughly 20 000 earthquakes each year – about 55 per day – reinforcing the constant, low‑level seismic background against which the occasional major quake occurs.