How did James Cleverly throw away a seemingly unassailable lead?

When will James Cleverly finally hand over power to Mel Stride? The year is 2035 and it's the only question political reporters are asking. Cleverly, the affable but gaffe-prone prime minister, is staring down the latest rebellion from supporters of his impatient chancellor, who at 72 years of age would be Britain's oldest leader by date of first appointment.

It goes on. I wrote an entire draft earlier this afternoon predicated on a Cleverly versus Jenrick or Badenoch contest. My plan was to give it a light edit depending on which of the candidates of the Right he would face. It turns out, neither. This is now a Jenrick versus Badenoch contest.

The final numbers were close:

Cleverly: 37 (-2)

Badenoch: 42 (+12)

Jenrick: 41 (+10)

But that will be of little consolation to the shadow home secretary, who 24 hours ago was the new favourite and darling of the party. It also represents a colossal failure by the One Nation faction, which is used to losing in the membership round but this time has not even managed to get its candidate there.

How? How did Cleverly managed to *lose* votes, particularly given that he really ought to have inherited the lion's share of those supporting Tom Tugendhat, who was eliminated on Tuesday? Tactical voting is one obvious explanation, with Team Cleverly encouraging some of its backers to support Jenrick. Or perhaps China hawks could not stomach Cleverly. Or, just maybe, the Conservative Party is still addicted to the drama.

Labour and the Liberal Democrats will be delighted. Cleverly and Tugendhat were the most popular contenders amongst the general public. Instead, the next Tory leader will either be a candidate that does not exactly radiate authenticity (Jenrick) or one who keeps threatening to trim broadly popular benefits such as statutory maternity pay (Badenoch).

Either way, Badenoch has recovered from a frankly disastrous conference and is once again the favourite. My instant reaction: the Tories have just repeated the mistakes of Labour's 2010 contest, when Ed defeated David.

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