George Eaton: Reports of the Lib-Dems’ death are exaggerated

Far from doomed and gloomy, this is a party fired with the conviction it will survive — and that it deserves to

Lost leader: few Liberal Democrats at their conference think Nick Clegg, right, can stay after the election

6 October 2014

For the Liberal Democrats, it is the hangover that never ends. Little more than four years ago they dreamed of superseding Labour as the second party. They now compete with Ukip for third place on a good day and with the Greens for fourth on a bad one. In addition to two-thirds of their opinion poll support (they currently sit at seven per cent), they have lost a third of their members, 1,500 of their councillors, all but one of their MEPs and nine by-election deposits. As Angela Merkel predicted to David Cameron before the coalition was formed, “the little party” has been “smashed”.

Nick Clegg has made no shortage of attempts to escape this wasteland. The Lib-Dem leader has apologised for breaking his pledge to oppose a rise in tuition fees, subjected himself to voters’ rage on “Call Clegg”, and twice debated with Nigel Farage. But nothing he has said or done has lifted his party’s subterranean ratings. Like a defeated child on sports day, his epitaph seems destined to be “I tried”.

In these circumstances, one could forgive the Lib-Dems for a morose conference in Glasgow. But the mood is instead one of righteous defiance. This is a party fired with the conviction it will survive — and that it deserves to.

It helps that what has gone before has reinforced the Lib-Dems’ central message: that Labour cannot be trusted to deliver a “strong economy” and the Tories cannot be trusted to deliver a “fair society”. Ed Miliband forgot to mention the deficit in his conference speech, while George Osborne vowed to cut working-age benefits without a corresponding increase in taxes on the wealthy. Lib-Dem strategists believe that they have never been in a stronger position to argue that neither of these two tribes is fit to govern alone.

Of the Tories, one tells me: “We entered coalition with the modern, compassionate Conservative Party. We are ending it with the Nasty Party.” While the Lib-Dems have “written off” a large number of Labour-facing seats, according to one source, they are confident that their vote will hold up better against their coalition partners. By appealing for tactical votes from Labour and Green supporters in the 37 of their 56 seats where the Tories are in second place, they hope to retain as many as 40-45 MPs. Lord Ashcroft’s most recent marginals poll found a swing of just two per cent to the Tories in these constituencies and their victory in the 2013 Eastleigh by-election (without which Clegg may not have survived) demonstrated the enduring power of incumbency. Some in the party even express the hope that Ukip’s surge will allow them to make gains at the Conservatives’ expense.

Outrage at the Tories’ Rightwards trajectory co-mingles with sincere pride at their record: the increase in the personal tax allowance to £10,000, the Pupil Premium, free school meals for all infants and the Green Investment Bank. In a manner reminiscent of Marxists who used to complain about the “false consciousness” of the proletariat, they believe that a stubbornly ungrateful electorate will give them credit if they preach the gospel often enough.

Most Lib-Dem activists and MPs are too focused on the fight ahead to wargame post-election scenarios, but the ultimate hope is that they will once again hold the balance of power in a hung parliament. Beyond this, uncertainty reigns.

Clegg has already appointed a coalition negotiating team, including Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander, schools minister David Laws and international development minister Lynne Featherstone. But an increasing number believe whichever party finishes first will opt for minority government, followed by a second general election aimed at securing a majority. In response, one Lib-Dem strategist denounces the two main parties’ “arrogance”, adding: “We might just try a motion of no confidence if they do that.”

But some in the Lib-Dems can see the appeal of a looser arrangement under which they support the government in key votes, secure some of their manifesto priorities and re-establish their independent identity. Despite the degree of policy overlap with Labour, there is little enthusiasm for a future coalition with Ed Miliband’s party. Some are repelled by the opposition’s undiminished tribalism, while others have no desire to be part of a government that they expect would rapidly become the most unpopular in history. “A Labour-Lib-Dem coalition would be a disaster,” one MP bluntly predicts.

Other than the status of the next government, it is the identity of Clegg’s successor that is occupying Lib-Dem futurologists. The “working assumption”, one source says, is that he will depart the stage if the result is as grim as most forecast. On the fringes of the conference, a proxy leadership contest is already under way.

There is Tim Farron, the party’s Left-leaning president and the activists’ candidate of choice, who has astutely differentiated himself from the leadership while remaining impeccably loyal to Clegg. Then there is Danny Alexander, whose makeover is the subject of much amused comment (he has swapped his glasses for contacts, lost some weight and, seemingly, dyed his hair), and who is set to replace Vince Cable as the party’s economics spokesman at the general election.

Other names commonly cited include Jeremy Browne, the standard bearer of the party’s free-market wing (who was careful not to rule out a bid when I interviewed him last week), the health minister Norman Lamb and business minister Jo Swinson, who is expected to become the first female Lib-Dem Cabinet minister by replacing Alistair Carmichael as Scottish Secretary.

That Clegg has made it this far is an achievement too rarely acknowledged. When the Lib-Dems’ ratings collapsed in 2010, commentators predicted that he would eventually be dispatched to Brussels to serve as the UK’s EU commissioner. Four years later, he is still in post and it is David Cameron, not him, who is losing MPs. But as they contemplate the renewal their war-weary party so desperately needs, few Lib-Dems believe Clegg is capable of providing it.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman

George Eaton: Reports of the Lib-Dems’ death are exaggerated

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