Shopper behaviour 'normalising' as food inflation falls to 18-month low

Shopper behaviour at supermarkets is “normalising” as food inflation comes back down to the lowest levels in 18 months, according to new data.

According to Nielsen IQ, total till sales grew by 6.6% in the four weeks to 27 January, as inflation came down to 6.1%, its lowest level since June 2022.

Fresh meat, fresh poultry and frozen chips were among the items with the biggest rise in sales.

Mike Watkins, NIQ’s UK Head of Retailer and Business Insight, said: "Shopping visits increased again in January and was helped by the return of smaller baskets after the big trolley spends in December. In addition, many households were moderating spend as paying off Christmas bills takes priority. To put this in context shoppers spent 24% less on Food & Drink in January compared to December.

Discount and high-end supermarkets both saw a big jump in sales, with Lidl having the fastest growth, followed by M&S and Ocado.

Watkins said: “During the height of the cost-of-living squeeze in early 2023, discounter growth was around 20%. However, this level of growth was not sustainable, so it's no surprise to see growths back to 10% over the last 12 weeks given the slowdown in inflation.

“As we look ahead and sentiments and shopper behaviour change, we expect to see the trend of managing overall basket spend continue even as inflation continues to slow, with Easter and warmer weather in spring giving the next boost to FMCG spend.”