London is the most vulnerable city in the world to AI automation, with nearly three in four jobs at risk now or in the near future, according to the OECD.
The Mayor says more than a million; the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development predicts three in four. Either way, the jobs impact of AI on London looks set to be grim.
First, those estimates. Sir Sadiq Khan commissioned a report by GLA economist Jeff Dwan-O'Reilly. He said that at least 46 per cent of London's workers, 2.4 million, "are in roles where GenAI could automate a share of their tasks".
He states: "While 54 per cent of workers are in roles assessed as having limited exposure, where their core tasks do not typically overlap strongly with GenAI's current capabilities, this does not imply no impact." This compares with the UK average for roles at risk of automation of 38 per cent.
His 71-page report, published three months ago, says that more than 300,000 roles in administrative positions face the highest levels of exposure and risk of automation "as their clerical tasks align most closely with GenAI capabilities".
Dwan-O'Reilly said a further 748,000 roles in areas such as IT, data analysis and secretarial work are at risk but it "varies across tasks".
Women, who are over-represented in administrative and clerical roles, young people and those with higher educational levels are among the most exposed, says his report. Brokers, web designers, telephone salespersons and journalists are also vulnerable.
Jobs least at risk from AI include architects, barbers, chefs, chief executives, driving instructors, florists and undertakers.
London faces highest exposure
This month, the OECD released its Economic Outlook. This finds that London is the most vulnerable city in the world to AI-induced automation, with nearly three in four jobs at risk "now or in the near future".
London is estimated to be worse off than all other comparable cities in the world, including New York, even the tech capital of San Francisco, and European centres like Paris and Berlin. This is because so many of London's jobs are concentrated in finance, professional services and the creative industries. Toronto and Vancouver share a similar concentration in those same sectors, making them comparably exposed.
The OECD reckons three-quarters of London jobs are "highly exposed" to AI, as having more than half their daily tasks capable of being performed by a bot.
Another analysis, from the Office for Budget Responsibility, warns that 3.4m people in the UK could lose their jobs because of AI in the next 10 years. It says around 10 per cent of the UK's workforce "could be exposed to substitution from AI by 2036". Similar forecasts from North American think tanks project comparable displacement rates across the United States and Canada.
A further 30 per cent, 10.2m workers, are likely to see their roles complemented by AI within a decade as the tech develops and carries out their duties. Again, London, with its concentration of banks, accountants, law and professional services firms and the creative industries, is in the firing line. Already, businesses, major recruiters in the annual graduate "milk round" are cutting back on their hires because their tech can do the work usually assigned to the graduate recruits.
This, as news of a recent deal has provoked shock in the City: private equity giant CVC put a Greek e-commerce business called Skroutz up for sale earlier this year and, reports the Wall Street Journal, the bankers, who would normally handle the complex process, were replaced by AI. Those interested were pointed to a link to a data portal that operated like a detailed brochure. A chatbot "analyst" acted as if they were a banker, answering queries about the financial information and due diligence, and pushing the possible buyer towards the management team if they wanted to continue the discussion.
On deals such as this, investment banks usually charge millions in fees. Here, they would have expected to be advising the owner on the disposal. Instead, they were taken out completely.
The co-founder of Skroutz, George Hadjigeorgiou, is something of a tech AI innovator. It was his suggestion, apparently, for the sale to be handled by machine rather than humans. Hadjigeorgiou has written: "A new era in software development has begun, bespoke software is here and it'll be a lot cheaper and far more tailored to a company's needs than ever."
Financial leaders urge rethink
In his recent annual letter to shareholders, Larry Fink, head of US financial colossus BlackRock, which speaks for $14 trillion of assets globally, said AI means we must change our perception of skilled trades.
He said the average plumber had been portrayed on television as being overweight and having their pants hanging below their waistline, while investment bankers are idolised in drama series like Industry.
"I think what we did was wrong. We really put judgment on so many jobs and so many people who probably should not have gone into banking or media or law, probably should have been a great worker with their hands, and we need to now rebalance that approach."
All of which begs the question: what are the authorities responsible for London, the Government, the Mayor, doing about it? Khan has set up the "London AI and Jobs Taskforce". Chaired by tech entrepreneur Baroness Martha Lane Fox, it's drawing on experts from government, trade unions, recruitment and skills, and the AI industry. Its primary objectives include: assessing workforce exposure, valuating how AI will impact jobs, particularly in heavily exposed sectors like finance, professional services and the creative industries; upskilling Londoners, working alongside city officials to provide free AI training to the public to prevent mass unemployment and close the skills gap; protecting employment pathways, advising on short-term interventions and practical actions for employers and workers. It's accompanied by a £12m package to help small businesses integrate AI.
Like many political leaders, Khan is caught. On the one hand, he wants to encourage AI as a technology that cannot be ignored and dismissed and must be embraced as a vital tool. On the other, it is bound to reduce jobs. Those who are in employment may find they can make their task easier, thanks to AI; those out of work might discover they cannot secure a job because of AI. He does, however, need to focus more on the latter. Arguably, AI is going to advance anyway, without the Mayor and his taskforce assisting its progress. Sure, educate small businesses in its use (the larger ones can manage themselves), but double down on what really matters.
Khan cannot afford to be too contradictory. At the Bloomberg CityLab Summit in Madrid, he launched the new body. At the same time, he disclosed that he is a member of the new Mayors AI Forum, established by Johns Hopkins University and Bloomberg Philanthropies. He is one of 10 founding mayors worldwide, coming together "to ensure responsible AI development, share practical use cases, and ensure national policies reflect local needs".
In his Madrid speech, Khan said: "I want to be clear that a high degree of exposure to AI does not necessarily mean job losses." He's wrong, it will.
"Our research indicates there's every chance that AI will augment and assist the Londoners working in these roles, rather than eliminating their jobs completely." Yes, and yes.
"But given the numbers of Londoners that are exposed, and the finding that 7 per cent of large UK businesses have already used AI to cut staff, we cannot afford to be complacent." Absolutely right there. We can't afford to be. Khan must stop ordering reports, joining and setting up worthy bodies and come up with a proper plan for London, and fast.