James Hamilton at Numis Securities said: "Lloyds is in a fairly desperate state and that puts it in a pretty weak position."
The taxpayer already controls 43% of Lloyds after the Government injected £17 billion of emergency funding at the time of the merger.
If the stake rises above 50%, pressure will mount on Daniels and his chairman Sir Victor Blank who brokered the deal - now widely seen as a disaster - with Gordon Brown.
A Lloyds spokesman said discussions were ongoing: "This is a complex issue and there remains a considerable amount of detail to be worked through.
"We have not yet concluded our discussions, and there can be no certainty about the outcome. Our objective is to secure the best possible deal for our shareholders."