The £20 billion gamble to transform London

They are preparing the launch party for London's biggest ever shopping centre the sprawling £1.6 billion Westfield London mall at Shepherd's Bush. But when the celebrations on the 30 October are over, the curtain will come down on the most spectacular commercial property boom in London since the Eighties.

Westfield is likely to prove the last scheme of its scale to be finished for at least three years as the market goes into deep freeze, property experts warn. This is only two years after a chronic shortage of skilled construction workers appeared to be the only brake on the multitude of "grands projets" set to transform London and its skyline.

But the credit crunch and the global financial crisis has changed the landscape out of all recognition. A dearth of tenants, falling rents andthe bank funding drought means new mega-developments are simply impossible to contemplate in London for now.

Sir Stuart Lipton, one of London's most experienced and respected developers, said it would be two to three years before any new schemes were considered: "The City rents have moved down substantially. The real rents in the City are £45 per sq ft. They were in the mid £60s just a matter of months ago. People have started giving [office buildings] three years rent-free. West End rents have not moved but we are all waiting to see what happens to the hedge funds."

Question marks now hang over many projects. Two stunning City office blocks, British Land's Cheesegrater and Land Securities' Walkie Talkie, are on hold.

City Hall has added another layer of uncertainty with Boris Johnson far less enamoured of tower blocks than his predecessor Ken Livingstone. Sir Stuart said that even without political scepticism the era of exotic "wibbly wobbly towers" on the model of the City's Gherkin was over. He added: "People now want in the City what they have in Canary Wharf an efficient product. You are going to see a change. We will see better buildings with lower costs."

Only the advanced schemes with "steel in the ground" that are fully funded and largely pre-let will definitely see it through to completion by 2010. This includes the Candy bothers' luxury apartments at One Hyde Park and a handful of City developments such as St Botolph's and Drapers Gardens.

Much of the debt financing for the major developments of recent years has come from the Bank of Scotland and Royal Bank of Scotland. With both now humbled and effectively in government hands, the outlook for funding is bleak.

Peter Bill, editor of property magazine Estates Gazette, said: "In the boom developers could raise 95 per cent of costs through banks at perhaps half a per cent above the inter-bank lending rate (Libor). Now they need to pay a 40 or 50 per cent deposit and still only get a loan at three per cent above the Libor rate. Ever since Superman Gordon rescued the world, property bankers are feeling a little more settled. But in two days they could be feeling worse again."

Nigel Fox, a partner at international property consultants Jones Lang Lasalle, said: "Certainly nobody is going to start building until 2010 at the earliest. If we were advising clients we would say, don't start now but get ready."

TWELVE WINNERS ... OR LOSERS

WESTFIELD LONDON

Location: Shepherds Bush.
Funding: This giant £1.7 billion mall, with some housing, is jointly owned by the Australian-owned Westfield Group, the largest retail property developer in the world, and its German partners, Commerz Real AG, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Commerzbank AG.
Features: Set on 43 acres, it is twice the size of Brent Cross and will be the biggest in-town shopping complex in Europe. It boasts 265 shops, 40 restaurants, a gym, a spa, and 14‑screen cinema. It is 96 per cent let and will be anchored by House of Fraser, Debenhams, Next, Waitrose and Marks & Spencer, as well as offering a luxury mall dedicated to top designer brands, including Louis Vuitton, Prada, De Beers and Gucci. Up to half-a-million people are expected to visit every week. Seventy units of affordable housing are already let and occupied.
Architect: Designed in-house but the luxury "Village" area housing the premium retailers has been designed by New York based architect Michael Gabellini.
Chances of Completion: 100 per cent. Due to open on 30 October.

ONE HYDE PARK

Location: Scotch Corner, opposite Harvey Nichols in Knightsbridge.
Funding: The scheme is funded by the Qatari foreign minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem bin Jabor al Thani. The Candy brothers, Nick, 33, and Christian, 35, through their CPC group, are managing the construction and marketing the flats. The site was bought for £150 million in 2004. The Candys claim that half the 80 apartments have already been sold with an average price of more than £20 million and that most buyers have already paid £8 million in deposits.
Features: servants' quarters, walk-in wardrobes and bulletproof glass. Due to be finished in 2010.
Architect: Richard Rogers, who also designed the Pompidou in Paris.
Chances of completion: 90 per cent.

CHELSEA BARRACKS

Location: mini village on a 12.8-acre site at Chelsea Bridge Road, between Sloane Square and the River Thames.
Funding: Project Blue, two thirds owned by Qatari Diar, the development arm of Qatar's ruling family, and one third by the Candy brothers' CPC Group. The site was bought last April from the Ministry of Defence for £959 million.
Features: 320 private flats and a similar number of "affordable" units. Also a £40 million sports centre, a 25-metre swimming pool, a boutique hotel, a day spa, and a 13-acre underground car park.
Architects: Richard Rogers, with the affordable housing developed by Paul Monaghan, of Allford Hall Monaghan Morris.
Chances of completion: 80 per cent but only after some redesign. No planning permission yet.

NOHO SQUARE

Location: site of the former Middlesex Hospital in Fitzrovia, north of Oxford Street.
Funding: A joint venture between the Candy brothers and the nationalised Icelandic bank Kaupthing, which looks like it's heading to the courts. The £175 million paid for the land in 2006 was in the expectation of massive profits but work on the scheme stopped after the old hospital was demolished and there is no telling when and if building will begin.
Features: 216 upmarket homes and 355,000 sq ft of offices.
Architect: Ken Shuttleworth at Make Architects.
Chances of completion: short term: 30 per cent. Long term: 80 per cent.

OLYMPIC VILLAGE

Location: Stratford.
Funding: Lend Lease won a tender to build the village on the basis of raising £450 million of private funding towards the £1 billion cost — but has failed to do so. The Olympic Development Authority last week admitted the development could be completely nationalised, with the taxpayer picking up the entire bill.
Features: the athletes' village contains 3,300 two-bedroom flats being built to designs that have been described as resembling Soviet-style blocks. They will be built without kitchens so five instead of four athletes can share because the ODA reduced the number from the original 4,500. The good news is that four tower blocks of flats have been scrapped.
Architects: a team of 18, chosen by international competition. Due to similar funding concerns plans for the London 2012 Olympic media centre are set to be radically redrawn, with a large proportion of the building likely to be a temporary structure.
Chances of completion: 100 per cent, one way or another

VICTORIA INTERCHANGE

Location: Victoria.
Funding: Land Securities, which owns much of the area and built nearby shopping centre Cardinal Place, is funding a £2 billion regeneration of the area around the station but property insiders say work is being put on hold due to the credit crunch.
Features: Six large blocks are proposed to stand opposite the station on a 2.5‑hectare site bounded by Bressenden Place, Victoria Street and Buckingham Palace Road. They replace an earlier scheme with two skyscrapers, which would have blocked views from Buckingham Palace.
Chances of completion: 60 per cent, depending on the planners and demand for offices.

ELEPHANT AND CASTLE SHOPPING CENTRE

Location: Southwark.
Funding: A consortium led by Lend Lease signed a partnership agreement with Southwark Council this summer to fund the £1.5 billion regeneration project. But the official principal development agreement, previously slated for completion in January 2008, has slipped to December. Some property experts believe the whole project is under threat as the credit crunch continues to bite.
Features: The shopping centre, once described as "a shabby shite hole of staggering grimness" by restaurant critic Giles Coren, was due for demolition in 2010 but that has been put back to 2012. Lend Lease has delayed releasing news of its plans for the site until next year.
Chances of completion: 50 per cent. Problematic track record and vulnerable to the funding crunch.

BATTERSEA POWER STATION

Location: Battersea riverside
Funding: Real Estate Opportunities Ltd, a London listed company, bought the site from developer Victor Hwang for £400 million last year and says the entire development will cost £4 billion. It is hoped to start phase one in 2012 and complete it by 2020 but the firm has yet to apply for planning permission. The company claims to have the resources to fund the scheme.
Features: The 38-acre site will be 45 per cent residential (ranging from £250,000 to £2.5 million), 30 per cent offices and 10 per cent retail, and will also host an 5‑star hotel and an energy museum. Its big design idea is to go for natural eco‑friendly ventilation with a massive 300-metre chimney that would tower above the station and be driven by solar power. The chimney may fall foul of Mayor Boris Johnson's opposition to tall structures. It has been redesigned to appeal more to mayoral sensibilities. Another major feature is the creation of Battersea's first Tube station.
Architect: Rafael Vinoly, designer of the "Walkie Talkie" and significant buildings in Tokyo, New York and the Performing Arts Centre in Philadelphia.
Chances of completion: 80 per cent if the plans are adapted further.

NINE ELMS

Location: Nine Elms corridor comprising 125 acres of prime real estate along the Battersea waterfront, stretching from Chelsea Bridge to Vauxhall Bridge.
Funding: The US Embassy has signed an agreement with real estate developer Ballymore to acquire a site here and plans to build a state-of-the-art secure compound as its new embassy. In addition, the Covent Garden Market Authority, which runs the market on behalf of the Department for Food and Rural Affairs, is searching for a private development partner for a new market after being given the go-ahead for a major redevelopment by the Government.
Features: A new Covent Garden market will be set on 57-acres, making it the largest fresh produce market in the country. Work is expected to start next year.
Chances of completion: 100 per cent

BEETHAM TOWER

Location: 1 Blackfriars Road, south of Blackfriars Bridge.
Funding: A £600 million 51-storey tower is to be developed by the Beetham organisation, which paid more than £50 million for the site in January last year.
Features: Original plans for a 68-storey skyscraper were scaled down following criticism from the Government's design watchdog, CABE. The tower is designed to contain 64 luxury apartments with a six-star, 261-bedroom hotel above (ballroom, meeting rooms, restaurants, bars, high-tech spa and a public viewing platform), while the base is designed as a wrap-around plaza, with cafes, restaurants and shops. It is the subject of a planning inquiry and its fate will be decided by Hazel Blears.
Architect: Ian Simpson, who also built the Beetham Tower in Manchester.
Chances of completion: 60 per cent if Hazel Blears approves the plans.

BANKSIDE 123

Location: Southwark Street, adjacent to the Tate Modern art gallery.
Financiers: This £220 million three-building mixed-use development houses 770,000 sq ft of office space and 58,000 sq ft of retail, and is funded by Land Securities.
Features: Building 1, the Blue Fin Building, is already occupied by IPC Media. Royal Bank of Scotland will occupy all the office space in Bankside 2 and 3 buildings. There is an onsite health club and the 20 shops include Marks & Spencer as well as restaurants and cafes.
Architect: Allies & Morrison, whose work includes the Brent Cross Masterplan and the Moorgate building in the City.
Chances of Completion: 95 per cent.

KING'S CROSS CENTRAL

Location: Kings Cross.
Funding: The developer Argent Group is having difficulties raising the billions needed for this massive mixed‑use redevelopment.
Features: The dense and massive scheme covers 67 acres of land north of King's Cross and St Pancras Stations, mostly in Camden. After many false starts spanning 20 years, planning permission was finally granted in March 2006. The permission includes up to 25 new office buildings, 20 new streets, 10 new major public spaces, the restoration and refurbishment of 20 historic buildings and structures, and up to 2,000 homes and serviced apartments, to be built over 15 years. No skyscrapers are planned but the tallest building could rise to 16 storeys. The first stages, including the concert hall at Kings Place, have given it a heart.
Chances of completion: 80 per cent, given the long timescale but could take some time to get going.