Summer holidays - delay or book?

Last week MyTravel (formerly Airtours) confessed to having a million holidays still on its books. Thomas Cook (which incorporates jmc, Neilson, Club 18-30 etc) says it is sitting on 750,000 unsold packages, too.

The difference between the two operators is that while Thomas Cook is quite happy with its position - this figure is a normal amount for the firm to be holding at this stage in the season - MyTravel would normally have sold 250,000 more by this time of year.

This means that what they do with these holidays could be very different. One company might have to consider cutting them, or selling them off cheap, the other could play for a bit more time. Last week MyTravel made its position clear by announcing a range of discount holidays. The implications could be farreaching, because a big player selling a lot of holidays off cheap could bring everyone else's prices tumbling, too.

As you might expect, a MyTravel spokeswoman denied that any holidays would be removed from the brochures, but nor would they be discounted in the peak season (late July and August). There are plenty of bargains, though, in June and September. Indeed, prices are absurdly low at the moment (MyTravel's website, www.uk.mytravel.com, has a June fortnight in Tenerife for £99). That said, an equivalent selfcatering fortnight in August is still around £730 per adult, based on a family of four.

Most tour companies decided to cut back on their flights and room allocations way back at the beginning of this year, expecting a downturn in business, but a series of phone calls to high street travel agents this week suggests that availability is still very good, despite this reduction in supply. Family groups, in particular, have been slow to book, whether it be due to 11 September, the Queen's Jubilee or the World Cup. As a result, the prime family resorts such as those in the Balearics have plenty of availability; you can still get, for example, a new villa in Majorca's Cala Vicente, provided you are prepared to pay £3,680 for a family of four for an August fortnight through OSL Holidays (08700 77 88 01 or visit a branch of Lunn Poly). Such prime properties would not normally still be available at this time of year.

Phoning a couple of travel agents I implied that these Tenerife and Majorca prices were rather high for my budget. They suggested that if I waited for a couple of weeks they might be reduced. The only problem with that, of course, is that by then the specific villa or the fortnight I wanted may have sold. By booking now, therefore, I'd be paying full price to be sure of getting exactly what I want.

The smaller, independent and specialist tour operators seem to have less availability, and more confidence that they won't be reducing prices. "We're 70 per cent sold, which is exactly where we want to be," says Noel Josephides of Sunvil, specialist in Greece and Cyprus.

It's a sentiment echoed by Andrew Lee of Tapestry, whose programme majors on Turkey. "Our bookings are in a very healthy state," he says, pointing out that "specialists get a lot of repeat customers who know exactly what they want to do and where they want to go", and who booked their holidays months ago. Neither expect to reduce their prices significantly - although both admit to some nervousness at what the big operators might do.

As far as specific destinations are concerned, there's a small swing away from air travel towards roadbased destinations, which means that you've left it too late to book a decent peak-season holiday cottage in the Lake District and you may have to hurry to be sure of that ferry or Eurotunnel crossing to Europe, too.

A destination that is hurting seems to be Cyprus, where bookings are 25 per cent down because of both the proximity to the Middle East and the "Ayia Napa effect" - the fall-out from that TV documentary series about the popular resort of the same name. "It's put off the core market - families," says a spokesman for Abta. Effectively that means discounts are already available on some peak holidays; an agent at Libra Holidays (0870 242 2525, www.libraholidays.co.uk) talked about a £200 reduction on the £2,864 she quoted me on a four-star hotelbased August fortnight for a family of four in Larnaca.

Closer to hand, the Balearics - Majorca, Minorca and Ibiza - are well down on previous years, partly because of a new eco tax levied on arrival, which would cost the average family an extra £60 for a two-week holiday. Given that this is a budgetconscious destination, the extra tax is having a significant impact. There are plenty of unsold holidays available here. First Choice (0870 750 0001), for instance, has 14 nights in the "three-sun" (think three-star) Calas Park Apartments in Calas de

Majorca for £1,472 for a family of four, self-catering, departing 23 July. However, the company says it "hasn't started to discount yet". Meanwhile there are also holidays aplenty in mainland Spain, but the same doesn't apply to the Canary Islands, which are well booked.

Florida is understandably well down on previous years, but capacity cuts of around 25 per cent since 11 September have kept holiday prices up. Travel City Direct (01792 600 177, www.travelcity.co.uk) has a fortnight in the theme park mecca Orlando for £549 per person (based on four sharing) for flights, car hire and room only in three-star accommodation such as a Quality Inn or Best Western. You can, however, get good deals on multi-day theme park tickets (10-day Disneyworld passes for £199 rather than £259, for example).

Overall, then, it is a situation of plenty of supply and no knock-down bargains - yet. If you don't mind dipping into your pocket right now you can take your pick of prime accommodation in prime destinations. If you are flexible about where and when you go, it's worth waiting a couple of weeks to see if those prices come down.

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