Who will go down?

In trouble: Newcastle are in hot water and have a real fight on their hands if they are to avoid relegation. Will they do it?

Patrick Whyte

13 April 2012

The relegation battle is the closest it has been for seasons, with nine teams all desperate for survival. As the season draws to a close, we predict who will stay up, and who is destined for the drop...

Who do you think will go down?

Bolton
Points: 34
Position: 12th
Predicted finish: 12th

Sitting on top of the rubbish pile, Bolton may not be challenging for a UEFA Cup place, but they should certainly be safe from relegation. However some poor results in their last three games means Garry Megson won't be able to relax until he has a few more wins under his belt. The next three matches against Middlesbrough (h), Chelsea (a) and Pompey (a) will be crucial in ensuring whether they become entangled in the relegation scrap, or put their feet up in mid-table.

Portsmouth
Points: 32
Position: 15th
Predicted finish: 13th

On paper Portsmouth have a slight advantage in that they have a game in hand over their relegation rivals. Unfortunately for the Pompey faithful, that game is against Manchester United at Old Trafford, and although United have slipped up recently, no-one expects a repeat of last year's FA Cup semi-final.

The positives for Pompey lie in the fact that Peter Crouch has found some form, scoring three goals in the last two games. Also their run-in is by no means the hardest out of the sides at the bottom. Paul Hart has steadied the ship since Tony Adams' departure, and the 2-1 win over Everton was crucial in restoring confidence. Given their run-in Portsmouth should achieve 40 points and relative safety - barring any major meltdowns.

Hull City
Points: 33
Position: 13th
Predicted finish: 14th

Despite falling down the table, Hull still look likely to prove early season doom-mongers wrong and stick about for another Premier League season. Rather than ripping up his squad and starting again Phil Brown cleverly added quality to the team that won promotion via the play-offs and rather than capitulating like Derby did last season they have held their own.

Hull's next three games are against Portsmouth, Middlesbrough and Sunderland and four points should see them safe. Even if somehow they were to come away with nothing, I've got a sneaking suspicion that they could get something against Liverpool or Manchester United – it's been that kind of season.

Stoke City
Points: 32
Position: 16th
Predicted finish: 15th

There are a lot of things Stoke City can't do. They can't win away from home, they can't play attractive football and they certainly can't get ginger strikers to score. That said, what Stoke have done this season is turn the Britannia Stadium into one of the most intimidating grounds in the league, having lost only three home games and picking up 28 of their 32 points.

Tony Pulis has said all along that Stoke would stay up because of their excellent home form, and their comparatively easy run-in. If the Potters can pick up an elusive away win away at either West Brom, Fulham or Hull then they will increase their chances of survival tenfold.

Sunderland
Points: 32
Position: 14th
Predicted finish: 16th

Sunderland's home defeat against Wigan rubber stamped the Black Cats as serious relegation candidates. Prior to this it seemed that the Mackems would sit comfortably above a relegation scrap that was consuming their bitterest rivals, however, after picking up a mere five points from their last six games they are now firmly entrenched.

Player wise Sunderland should have enough quality to stay up, especially if the impressive Anton Ferdinand can stay fit, but will a bottom half finish be enough to persuade Sunderland chairman Niall Quinn that he made the right choice in appointing Ricky Sbragia?

Blackburn
Points: 31
Position: 17th
Predicted finish: 17th

Sam Allardyce has done a solid, if unspectacular job of lifting Blackburn out of the relegation zone. When appointed, he was seen as a "safe pair of hands", someone who could come in and steady thing's after Paul Ince's disastrous few months in charge.

Results have been mixed: Rovers recorded impressive away wins against Hull and Fulham but were soundly thrashed away at Arsenal. More worrying is the fact that even with Big Sam's considerable experience they still haven't managed to pull away from the bottom three.

Newcastle
Points: 29
Position: 18th
Predicted finish: 18th RELEGATED

It has been another year to forget for Newcastle fans. King Kev walked out. Joe Kinnear came in. Owen, Viduka and Martins got injured. Results went badly. Kinnear had heart surgery. Mike Ashley is still at the club. And now they are in the relegation zone.

It has been one of the most turbulent seasons in Newcastle history – and that is saying something for a side perpetually stuck in turmoil. To make matters worse their run-in is no picnic; Chelsea (h), Stoke (a), Tottenham (a), Portsmouth (h), Liverpool (a), Middlesbrough (h), Fulham (h), and Aston Villa (a). Realistically Newcastle will struggle to reach 40 points, and with the league as tight as it is that might not be enough to save them. Sorry lads, the Mags have had it.

Middlesbrough
Points: 27
Position: 19th
Predicted finish: 19th RELEGATED

Losing at Stoke on the weekend was a huge blow to Middlesbrough's survival chances, not to mention Gareth Southgate's managerial career. Boro have an uncanny knack of bringing the worst out of their players. Stuart Downing has been a shell of his former self, and Marlon King has not excelled since his move from Hull. As for Afonso Alves, the man who once scored seven goals in a game has only managed four all season. Still, that's almost as good as Tuncay who has bagged five, but twice as good as Aliadiere's two. Unless their strikers can remember where the goal is Boro will certainly be playing Championship football next season.

West Brom
Points: 24
Position: 20th
Predicted finish: 20th RELEGATED

Throughout the season Tony Mowbray has boasted about his side's passing prowess and despite their current league position the West Brom boss is resolutely sticking to his guns. It's certainly true that the Baggies do try to play football but Mowbray's philosophy is flawed for three reasons: his side cannot defend; they lack creativity in midfield and have no cutting edge up front.

West Brom do have a comparable home record to the sides around them – five wins – but their awful away form means that in order to stay up they'll have to rely on those above them spectacularly imploding.

MORE ABOUT

Blackburn Rovers

Who will go down?

Read More