The Trader can show a profit

Take Somnus. Tim Easterby's gelding slogged through the mud to land this race in 2003 and looked as good as ever when pipping Whipper at Deauville last month. He's bound to go well again, while Patavellian is proven at this level and lines up fresher than most after just two runs this season.

Patavellian's stablemate Tante Rose is another strong contender after a striking York success, while Ashdown Express, Monsieur Bond, Frizzante and Airwave all have something to recommend them at their best.

However, when a big race looks as open as this one it often pays to take an each-way punt on a longshot.

Step forward The Trader, who has much more in his favour than his lowly position in the betting would suggest. Granted, his trainer Michael Blanshard and his rider Fergus Sweeney are far from the first names that spring to mind when Group 1 contests come around, and The Trader's record at the top level currently stands at nought from five.

But read a little deeper and this durable six-year-old begins to take on the look of a live outsider.

Look back to Arc de Triomphe day last October, when The Trader produced a storming late run to chase home Patavellian in the Prix de l'Abbaye-And this year's form reads every bit as well as that Longchamp performance.

An emphatic success in Group 3 company back at Longchamp in May made for a fine start to the season, while another Group 3 came his way in style at Deauville in July.

The Trader couldn't quite repeat that form when fifth behind Somnus on his return to Deauville last time, but he came home strongly having been left with plenty to do and left the clear impression that he's still in top form. Of course, his best may not be good enough if One Cool Cat finally replicates his explosive home work where it matters most.

But does the favourite's potential really warrant him being an 11-4 shot?

Not to my mind, it doesn't. The Trader is 20-1 or longer in the odd place. With the softish ground to suit and a draw near the stand rail, that could look a very big price by twenty to three tomorrow afternoon.