Scrap the stats and jump on Jurancon

Pipe seldom wastes time before sending his winning hurdlers over fences and turned Jurancon out to make a winning chasing debut at Uttoxeter last December.

Third in the Midlands National three months later represented a fine effort for one so inexperienced, but the performances which highlight Jurancon as a potential National winner are his past two.

It's probably no coincidence that both those runs were produced once the ground dried out from soft to good.

The first came at Warwick in January, when he belied a starting price of 50-1 to finish second in the Tote Classic Chase.

Conditions were on the fast side again for the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup at Haydock in February, and Jurancon produced a vastly improved performance under inexperienced rider Joey Elliott.

He put the field under pressure with some bold jumping and smashed the track record storming well clear of Bear On Board and Artic Jack. That pair both renew rivalry again tomorrow, but the big dangers probably lie elsewhere.

Joss Naylor has been campaigned very sparingly by Jonjo O'Neill this season, and his owner Darren Mercer faces a Jockey Club charge of deliberately laying his own horse to lose on the betting exchange Betfair earlier this season. This could be a last shot at the big time for Mercer, who will be banned for a long period if found guilty. But Joss Naylor ran a tremendous race to chase home Strong Flow in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury and has the assistance of Paul Carberry.

And what of Monty's Pass, who landed a colossal gamble in this race last year? The trends junkies have written him off based on the theory that past winners have struggled of late and because no horse has humped more than 11 stone to Aintree glory since Corbiere in 1983.

But at 20-1 or thereabouts, he looks bound to give his followers an exciting each-way run for their money. His fellow Irish raider Le Coudray has been saddled with top weight but is far from harshly handicapped and is much too good a horse to be languishing among the 33-1 shots.

As always, much will depend on which horses get the breaks when the gallop is at its fiercest over the first few fences.

Hedgehunter seemed to relish forcing the pace when showing improved form at Gowran Park last time and looks bound to be in the thick of the action again, while Clan Royal has won twice over these big fences and has been trained for this day ever since his last success in November.

Bindaree produced a vibrant performance to thwart What's Up Boys in the 2002 National and looked as good as ever with a gutsy success in the Welsh National at Chepstow over Christmas. His stablemate Shardam provides Nigel Twiston-Davies with a handy second string, while Davids Lad, Amberleigh House and Gunner Welburn all have valuable experience of these unique fences.

But Jurancon is the main bet. Take away the statistics about his age and breeding and he is plainly a progressive young stayer who jumps soundly and figures on a very attractive handicap mark.

Add that man McCoy to the mix and everything looks in place for him to run a very big race indeed.