Saarland to give the US a home win

Johannesburg once again crosses the Atlantic with an impossible task at hand: becoming the first European-trained winner of America's Kentucky Derby.

And this time he must manage without the strong arms of regular partner, Mick Kinane.

Europe's top-rated juvenile took the world title at New York's Belmont Park last October when beating the best of the Yanks in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. That day, he travelled strongly off a lethal pace before - with the malleability he'd displayed all season - switching right and changing gear inside the final furlong.

But he has a furlong-and-a-half further to negotiate at Churchill Downs tomorrow and, with Kinane serving a seven-day ban for a rush-ofblood manoeuvre at Newmarket last month, must do so in the unfamiliar hands of top US jockey Gary Stevens.

Johannesburg's shock defeat by Rebelline in last month's Gladness Stakes did nothing to suggest he's developed unforeseen stamina over the winter. Sticky ground didn't help and he blew hard afterwards, suggesting he needed the run, but his stride was shortening at the end of those seven furlongs.

To prove what a tough ask the Gladness is, pitching against older horses so soon in a three-year-old's career, Giant's Causeway only scraped home in 2000 from Tarry Flynn - a horse far inferior to Group One-placed Rebelline. But the final nail was trainer Aidan O'Brien talking July Cup, over six furlongs, as a target.

Stablemate Castle Gandolfo is perhaps the more credible European challenger to go one better than the Clive Brittain-trained Bold Arrangement's second to Ferdinand in 1986. Twice Group One-placed on heavy ground at two, he'll at least be staying on.

But it's more likely to be a home win. Following his soft-palate operation, battling Saarland fits the bill. He was deemed good enough to contest the Juvenile and will appreciate the searching task of the 'Run For The Roses'. Perfect Drift can go well at a longer price.