Redcoat ref will decide the result

We know that we have been here before, with fantastic autumn performances and then a failure to complete the Grand Slam.

We know, too, the Welsh are desperate to beat us. As far as the Six Nations Championship is concerned there is no better or bigger team to turn over than England.

Throw French referee Joel Dumet - more of a Butlin's redcoat thriving on organised chaos than a disciplinarian - on top of England's first visit to the Millennium Stadium, add the dark legacy of England's sufferings in Cardiff in the Sixties, Seventies and Eighties, and you have a recipe for potential disaster.

There is also a Lions tour to Australia this year and that means the players will have something else on their minds. While the best way to win a place in the squad is to play well in the Six Nations, the prospect of a tour often throws a spanner in the works.

Over the season, however, it could have a more damaging effect on Wales. Everyone will be out to impress Lions' chief selector and coach Graham Henry and because he also coaches the Welsh, they will be big games for players of the other Home Nations.

Henry recognised this when accepting the Lions job. He will also, by now, have at least half of his tour party pencilled in and the Six Nations will provide the perfect environment to complete the selection procedure.

Bad news for Wales and Welsh players? Possibly, but it is also a great motivational tool, and one I am positive Henry will use effectively. The Welsh will be relishing Mr Dumet's appointment to Saturday's match, as he suits their game plan perfectly.

England will need to be technically superb at the tackle and collision facets of the game in order to prevent Wales disrupting their quick ball, which has become the essence of their style.

Welsh players know only too well the danger of disrupting England illegally - and getting caught!

Most of their players had first-hand experience of it last weekend in the European Cup quarter-finals, as both Cardiff and Swansea bombed out of the Cup helped by acts of crass stupidity in or around the contact areas.

It will be interesting to see if the lesson has been learned or whether, in the heat of battle, they revert to type. Make no mistake about this game: Mr Dumet's application of the laws will decide the outcome.

Aware of the potential problems that are ahead of them, England are in good shape.

Martin Johnson is well rested from his enforced lay-off and the team nigh on picks itself. For years, the trip to Cardiff was clouded by the past - and it wasn't just losing, either. It was the unpleasant way the message was rammed down your throat.

It had a detrimental effect on England's performance, although that was no excuse for most of the matches played.

Quite simply, Wales were better than most during those three decades, but that won't worry this battle-hardened England team.

They have no hang-ups about playing in Cardiff, although they have a healthy respect for Welsh players because of their contact in European club rugby and recognise that Saturday's performance will have to be out of the top drawer to win.

They also recognise that they are a huge scalp for anyone and performances against the southern hemisphere in the autumn count for very little in the Six Nations.

These England players do not have to wait until the playing of the Welsh anthem to realise they have a difficult game on their hands.

Dick Best is the London Irish director of rugby and a former England coach.