Pinsticker's guide to the Derby

14 April 2012

French raider who was strongly fancied until a lucky win in the French Guineas. Has more Group 1 wins than the rest of this lot put together, but stamina is a worry and his awkward head carriage and choppy action suggest Epsom may not be the ideal stage for his talents. 6/10

2: COMING AGAIN

Trainer Barry Hills has taken out a mortgage on the runner-up spot in the Derby, with Rheingold, Hawaiian Sound, Glacial Storm and Blue Stag all going agonisingly close, but this colt has failed in three attempts in maidens. Anything better than midfield would be a massive bonus. 3/10

3: ELSHADI

Gained valuable course experience with a workout 10 days ago, but tricky to assess after a lengthy break. Likely to be up with the leaders for a long way. Even likelier to be swamped for pace once the market leaders set sail for home at the twofurlong pole. 5/10

4: GATWICK

Part-owned by Sir Alex Ferguson and stormed home in two valuable handicaps. Has "an attitude to die for" according to trainer Mick Channon, who is confident he will be in the first six. Fergie will be hoping he is right, but this big step up in class and distance could ground him. 6/10

5: HAZYVIEW

As with Gatwick, connections have shelled out £75,000 to supplement him. The ploy worked for Kris Kin last year, but Hazyview was put firmly in his place by Percussionist at Lingfield. Perhaps the soft ground was against him there, but it will have to be a weak Derby if he is to go close. 5/10

6: LET THE LION ROAR

No beaten Dante runner has ever won the Derby and no blinkered horse has won since 1913, but this colt left the impression he has more to give last time. Half-brother Millenary relished blinkers and, if they have the same effect on him, this Lion might just roar his way into the frame. 7/10

7: MASSIF CENTRALE

Well bred and trained by a man who doesn't run horses in top races for the fun of it, but the form of his two runs in maiden company falls way short of what will be required here. Likely to stay well, though, and could plug on to pass a few stragglers late on in the race. 4/10

8: MEATH

Ignored because of the hoo-ha over injured stablemate Yeats, but trainer Aidan O'Brien almost stole the race with a similar type in The Great Gatsby last year. Progressive judged on his emphatic win in a Group 3 at the Curragh two weeks ago and can outrun his long price. 7/10

9: NORTH LIGHT

Represents the trainer and jockey who landed one of the biggest Derby gambles ever with Kris Kin last year and produced massive improvement in the Dante, where he showed pace and stamina to win cosily. Further progress looks assured, in which case he will go very close. 9/10

10: PERCUSSIONIST

Bolted clear of Hazyview at Lingfield and will attract sentimental support after the death of owner Robert Sangster. Sentiment alone doesn't win Derbies, but stamina does and this proven stayer should run a solid race provided his edgy temperament doesn't get the better of him. 7/10

11: PUKKA

Trainer Luca Cumani won with Kahyasi and High-Rise and sent out Daliapour to finish second. Quickened smartly to win at Newbury, but that was a handicap off a mark of 79 and, despite his trainer's fine record, he will need to leave that form way behind to play more than a minor role. 6/10

12: RULE OF LAW

First Derby ride for Aussie Kerrin McEvoy and bustled up North Light under Dettori in the Dante. Seems unlikely to reverse that form over this longer trip and Frankie never for a moment considered riding him in preference to Snow Ridge. Don't expect him to be proved wrong. 6/10

13: SALFORD CITY

Held in high regard by canny David Elsworth, but doesn't appeal as the sort to relish this unique track and perhaps runs more at the insistence of his owner Michael Tabor. West Ham fan Tabor didn't get the result he was looking for in Cardiff last weekend. It could be a similar story here. 6/10

14: SNOW RIDGE

Bids to make it twelfth time lucky for Frankie and lines up with the best form after his Guineas second, but will he truly stay? Expect him to be cruising for much of the straight, but 2-1 looks a shortish price for a colt who might just be reaching the end of his tether at the furlong pole. 8/10

GRAHAM CUNNINGHAM'S THREE TO FOLLOW FOR THE DERBY

1 North Light (nap)
2 Snow Ridge
3 Let The Lion Roar

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Pinsticker's guide to the Derby

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