Owen fast show to trouble Brazil

I feel real optimism about this game. Before the tournament I tipped Brazil to win because they are superb going forward, but halfway into the competition we have a better picture of their overall game and it has become clear that they concede goals.

This vulnerability convinces me that a fit Owen could be lethal. He has missed training this week and remains a doubt but fingers crossed he will be all right. He certainly needs to be as it will be a massive, massive blow for England if he misses out. This type of game is made for his speed on the break and other teams have shown that the Brazilians are uncomfortable against that kind of player.

Let's face it, Brazil will have possession for long periods but I have looked closely at their pattern of play and there are a lot of holes for him to exploit.

If we drop our second striker - either Emile Heskey or Teddy Sheringham - deep while defending they will play with just two at the back, pushing their full-backs into wing-back positions. That is when Owen can punish them by finding spaces down the channels.

Four years ago I remember watching their World Cup Final defeat by France in Paris and thinking they were very vulnerable at set plays.

In this tournament you can see the coach has made them much more aware of defending at corners and free-kicks.

Taking advantage of the vulnerability I believe they have from freeplay in this tournament depends, of course, on getting David Beckham and Trevor Sinclair as high up the pitch as possible so they can deliver the telling crosses.

This won't be easy because Brazil will see a lot of the ball and we will be defending from a deep position. But we have looked very tight at the back and can catch them on the break because they push so many men forward.

So far we have defended with two banks of four, occasionally dropping the second striker into a deeper position.

This has made England very difficult to get through and victory could come through quick, incisive counter-attacks.

While Owen is our key man, the key moment will come with the first goal. If they score early we would have to come out and attack, leaving us vulnerable to the kind of counterattack which Brazil used so effectively against Belgium in the previous round. Belgium pushed forward in search of an equaliser and were open to exploitation. The same could happen to England if they chase the game. What we need to do is get our noses in front and then defend like we have done up to now.

We must not concede a goal in the first 35 minutes. Even though both Brazil's goals against Belgium were fashioned out of crosses from the right wing, they create more chances from the left because Denilson has been coming on and causing problems.

The threat from the left is not so apparent early on when both teams are fresh. But it is a different matter when the game is stretched - and Denilson is on. He gets in front of Roberto Carlos, the pair link up and chaos ensues. Danny Mills will certainly have a busy game.

Of course, the problem with Brazil is that you cannot single anyone out as the danger player. There is no point focusing on an individual when you have Ronaldo, Rivaldo, Ronaldinho and Juninho plus Roberto Carlos, with his capacity for scoring from free-kicks, and Denilson coming on from the bench. The way to beat them is to focus on their weaknesses.

Do not forget that we have had two days more rest than the Brazilians. This will give us a massive advantage in that climate and humidity and allow Owen extra time to get fully fit. I suspect that if the game had been played today then he might not have made it.

We won't be sitting back and defending . . . we will be forced back. People will look at tomorrow's game and wonder why we are playing so deep. But the truth is that so long as the game remains goalless or if England sneak a goal we won't be given the option to do anything else. Brazil have such talent and versatility they will always be pushing forward.

However, while Brazil are not as secure as they would like to be, I don't agree with suggestions that they lack defensive shape. The presence of two midfielders as buffers in front of two central defenders allows Roberto Carlos and Cafu to play like wing-backs. They are allowed to do this because most teams face Brazil with just one striker up front. Look at that list of names I've mentioned above and you will understand why.

Brazil switch to three at the back - Edmilson is usually the player who slots in as the extra man - when things break down. They also play a back-three when faced with two strikers, as in the opening game against Turkey.

If England play Owen up on his own they will stick with two defenders plus two slotted in front. This is how they played against Belgium although it is important to remember that the current Brazilian midfielders are not as disciplined as Dunga and Mauro Silva were in the 1994 World Cup. Last month I watched their youngsters win the Toulon tournament with the same system. They were superb going forward and had a young lad called Walker, who plays for Ajax, sitting in midfield and dropping back into defence. So they know what they are doing from an early age but the senior side does not execute this system with the same efficiency as the World Cup winners of '94.

For this game I would play Sheringham up front instead of Heskey and maybe drop him back into midfield when defending. Owen needs to be right on the shoulders of Brazil's two central defenders so that when we get good possession, Beckham, Paul Scholes and Nicky Butt can hit the passes that will get him in behind them.

Where we have to be careful is that Brazil have been the best attacking team and scored the most exciting goals in these finals. They will be very happy with what they have achieved so far but, no disrespect to the teams in their group, they have not been really stretched yet. They had a real test against Belgium but England are better than Robert Waseige's side.

Belgium had lots of chances and if we decide to keep two players up front and go for it, I think Brazil will have problems.

But I still say it is best to be solid at the back and hit them on the break. Either way, I think we will score goals. I will be worried If we have to chase the game but I think we are in with a great chance of wrapping it up before golden goals and penalties. There is no doubt that victory would be a magnificent achievement - one that would be up there with England's greatest moments.

If we get through, we would be the favourites against Turkey or Senegal. I think the appearance of one of these teams in the semifinal - and the shocks that have been such a feature of this tournament - is good for world football. The previous two World Cups proved the rapid development of Asian and African teams, but this tournament shows they are now on a new level. An Asian or African side is going to win it - either this year or in the near future. It is inevitable.

Not only have these sides caught up with the Europeans, but they have qualities that we lack because so many of their players are very quick and athletic. Look at what Guus Hiddink has achieved with South Korea, harnessing discipline and tactics to all that natural ability. All that these teams have ever needed was moulding tactically. Some of the African teams need a little bit more of that but only because they have not got a top European coach working for them. When that happens they will be a massive force.