No time for England slam dunk

Not surprisingly, England have been scanning the weather reports all week and captain Martin Johnson sounded more like Bill Giles as he went through the probable scenario.

Johnson said: "It's going to be very windy and we have all been playing on similar muddy pitches at this time of year and so we shouldn't be taken by surprise by the weather. Scotland will enjoy the poor weather conditions."

Trust those canny Scots to be at one with their own weather!

Given Scotland's awful record against the English - one win from the last 12 matches - it is understandable that they will try and use any advantage that the elements provide tomorrow.

England are the strongest of the four Home Unions and the match with France in Paris next month will decide who is the top dog in the Northern Hemisphere. England and France both beat Australia and South Africa in November. The Scots lost to Argentina and New Zealand but took some comfort from a 43-20 win over Tonga.

The Zurich world ratings - an attempt to order world rugby using a computer - predicts a 26-point winning margin for England, who are ranked second to New Zealand, and the Scots are at No 7.

According to the same predictions, France will thrash Italy by 56 points tomorrow in Paris while Ireland will have a 14-point winning margin against Wales in Dublin on Sunday.

No doubt the computer was pushing out similar predictions two years ago but its programme, like the England tactical planners, failed to include "dreadful weather" in the variables that make the Six Nations an outstanding tournament. England, with five changes from the side that hammered South Africa 29-9, should win but the first game of any Championship is hard to call. Both teams are starting from cold after the festive break from Test rugby and injuries have affected their line-ups.

Lawrence Dallaglio, Phil Vickery, Dorian West, Lewis Moody and Matt Dawson are ruled out for England while Scotland will be without centre John Leslie.

England have handed a first cap to hooker Steve Thompson, who is in for a difficult day at the line-out. The strong winds will make throwing even tougher than normal and limit the options available to England. No one with any sense would try to throw 15 metres to the back of the line-out in a howling gale - not even a 6ft 2ins, 18st debutant.

Johnson admits it's a big task for Thompson but said: "He has a very good line-out throw and the speed at which he gets the ball in will help counter the wind.

"I have been very impressed with him in training."

Of course, Thompson is bound to be affected by nerves on his debut and how well the 23-year-old handles the pressure will be vital.

The inclusion of Mike Tindall at centre alongside Will Greenwood is designed to bring the tries that were missing in November's internationals and England have to find a way of getting the ball to live-wire full-back Jason Robinson.

He is the player the Scots fear and not even strong winds and rain will stop him cutting a swathe through their defence tomorrow.

However, if he has to batter through plague of locusts - that's a different matter.