London's secret war will decide battle for Games

London 2012's PR department will be moving into over-drive in the seven weeks before the vote.

But it is important for bid leader Seb Coe not to get too sucked into the feelgood factor of what is expected to be a good report for London following the commission's visit to the capital in February.

Coe and London 2012 chief executive Keith Mills have to keep their minds on who is winning the "Secret War" where the powerbrokers of international sport, business, politics and diplomacy are quietly fighting over the world's most prestigious sports event. The French, taking advantage of their wide network of ambassadors in key battlegrounds like Africa and Asia, have been particularly active and Paris are still regarded as favourites. But so have the British and Spanish, who also have strong ties around the world.

The Olympics are much more than a sporting jamboree. They are about political and commercial prestige, trade and tourism. The 2012 decision will have a huge influence on the reelection hopes of French President Jacques Chirac.

Now the general election is over, Tony Blair has pledged to put his energy behind the London bid in the final weeks of the campaign and will travel to Singapore to lobby IOC members before the vote.

The reality, however, is that the Government has been beavering away at the 2012 project behind the scenes for more than two years. On the surface Sports Minister Richard Caborn has been working hard on his international contacts with ministers and in the IOC. Behind the scenes, advisors of leading Cabinet Ministers, ambassadors and friends of Labour have all been gathering knowledge of the IOC and have been putting the word out that Britain is serious this time.

This is where Ecclestone, a friend of Labour, comes in.

The F1 supremo, who has a good relationship with Caborn, was said to have been unimpressed with the bid at the start and did not hit it off with the initial leader Barbara Cassani.

But he has since warmed to London 2012 under Coe and Mills. Ecclestone has no official connection with London 2012 but as Britain's most powerful sporting figure internationally, people listen to his views.

Grand prix races are usually attended by the movers and shakers of sport. With Mexico, Russia, India, South Africa, America and Greece all looking for a slice of F1 action, Ecclestone's time and opinions are much in demand. It is not insignificant that his new advisor is Michael Payne, the marketing supremo who helped save the Olympics from bankruptcy in the 1980s and 1990s.

Why is this important? When IOC members vote on 6 July, perception will be a vital factor, especially in a race where all five cities are capable of building the stadia and infrastructure to host the Games.

Members need to know that the Government is serious about the bid. This was not the perception during previous campaigns from Birmingham and Manchester.

They also need to know that Britain is determined to improve its sporting relations internationally by offering coaching expertise or financial support to projects in developing countries.

The opposition is tough. Paris have a seasoned diplomat in Philippe Baudillon in charge of their bid. Chirac has put all his weight behind the campaign, although the French Government's attention has been seriously distracted in recent weeks by the referendum on the EU constitution on 29 May.

Samaranch, who ran the IOC for 21 years until 2001, is a formidable political networker.

The Spaniard was desperately ill with kidney problems just after he stepped down as IOC President. But he has since recovered and is said to be energetically helping his son - who has the same name and is also an IOC member - to steer Madrid's campaign. Olympic insiders say Samaranch knows it will be tough for Madrid to win so soon after Barcelona staged the Games in 1992. But he is calling in old favours.

He is also said to be "pressing the flesh" to make sure Moscow, where he has strong ties and was once Spain's ambassador to the former Soviet Union, is not humiliated with a poor first-round tally.

The most interesting question is where Madrid's supporters will go if the vote comes down to a final round showdown between London and Paris.

Could Samaranch, who has known Ecclestone for years and was once a strong supporter of Coe, be persuaded to help London secure enough support to win? Or will Paris sweep up the Hispanic vote?

Coe and Mills will be working hard to win these votes in their conversations with IOC members right up until the final hours. Behind the scenes, they will also be at the heart of the "Secret War".