London bid's whipping boy

Berlin's conference of international sports federation presidents and IOC members has been a rare opportunity for London and 2012 bid rivals Paris, New York, Moscow and Madrid to press the flesh.

Coe, a former Government Whip who is well versed at the complex arithmetic of counting prospective votes, has spent most of his days holding informal chats with influential sports figures as well as giving a high-profile presentation of London's plans to the sports federations.

He is up at 6.30am and lobbying begins with breakfast meetings and ends in the early hours of the morning with chats in the bar.

The key to success is avoiding too much of a hard sell on IOC members. Stroking egos and pushing the right emotional buttons is crucial.

Unlike in a general election, the one question Coe cannot ask is: "Have we got your vote?"

IOC members are notoriously secretive-about their voting plans and it is considered bad manners to even ask.

But the London team somehow have to work out the numbers in the most competitive contest for decades.

Coe said: "In a Whip's office your raison d'être is to make sure there are no surprises. It is like that. You have to know what is being spoken about in the coffee house. You have to follow the nuances."

The general view emerging this week is that London has the momentum in this race and is catching up favourites Paris. Moscow is largely seen as an outsider but New York and Madrid are also gaining ground.

One IOC member said: "Paris has the advantage that it has bid twice before. But the IOC members are not even talking among themselves about how they are going to vote. It is that tight."

After a modest career as an MP, Coe appears to have found his niche in this world. As a double Olympic champion, he can talk authoritatively about the needs of competitors and has built up a network of contacts in the Olympic world.

There are 39 IOC members attending the Berlin conference and Coe has been following their movements and those of his rivals very closely.

Even when he takes 15 minutes of fresh air outside of the hotel to talk about the bid, Coe cannot switch off completely. His attention is diverted by the sight of one his main rivals Dan Doctoroff, the New York deputy mayor, heading down the street.

"What's he up to?" is the obvious thought flashing through Coe's mind.

Like a general election campaign, it is crucial to watch what the rivals are doing and to react quickly to their moves. Coe's communications team, led by former Labour spin doctor Mike Lee, often operate the same tactics that are common in Westminster.

They have been working hard in the last 24 hours after it became clear that London's new charter of incentives to Olympic chiefs - including free air travel for athletes and subsidised training camps - are being probed by the IOC's ethics commission which polices the campaign.

It is becoming increasingly likely that London will escape without any major punishment.

Coe admits he knew Hague's chances of becoming Prime Minister four years ago were slim. The 2012 campaign is very different.

He said: "I knew the odds were highly stacked against us in 2001. But this is winnable. The key thing is not to panic. Everybody has what they call a wobbly Thursday."