Johnny Herbert: Surprise leader Nico Rosberg can win again in China

We did some filming with Lewis and Nico at Silverstone before the start of the season and the impression I got was that Lewis was as confident as ever and Nico was much the same as ever.

There was no great change in their demeanour prior to the opening race in Australia but something has changed. It’s hard to put my finger on it but, standing on the podium after Bahrain, I think we saw a different Nico.

Of course, the smile was there, as it would be for any grand prix winner, but there was something more in his facial expression, an all-round happier and more positive demeanour from him.

I don’t buy the idea that it’s because he became a dad last year because Lewis was still dominating at that time. For me, becoming a dad didn’t really change how I approached a race weekend.

I know a lot of other guys have said it did affect them, that they held back more, knowing they had a family at home. But becoming a dad came pretty early in my career and I don’t feel like I changed in the cockpit. Similarly, I don’t think it has changed Nico on the track.

Yet questions still remain about him. Sure, he’s on a great run, with five grand prix victories in a row, dating back to last season, but has he got what it takes to win the championship? That’s what we’re yet to find out. You certainly don’t win the championship after two grands prix of a 21-race season but what he can do is make the most of the momentum he has, extend that winning run and make the gap that Lewis needs to close even bigger.

It has not got to a point yet where he has got into Lewis’s head. The words from Lewis very clearly after Bahrain were that, “I’m ready for the battle”. The confidence hadn’t taken a knock and why would it?

He made a mistake off the line in Australia and he was unlucky to have that collision with Valtteri Bottas in Bahrain which damaged his car. But he still finished second and third respectively in a damage-limitation exercise and knows the speed is there, having topped both qualifying sessions.

Lewis has a great record in China. He has won there four times and is going for a hat-trick this time around and, in my heart, I’d always back the Brit.

But my head says that Nico will continue that winning streak, particularly after Lewis was given a five-place grid penalty yesterday. Nico, too, has won there — it was his first grand prix win — and that feeds into the memory and gives that additional spur.

He has flipped the championship standings on their head from our perception and it has been great to watch.

IT’S NOT OVER FOR FERRARI YET

Ferrari have not been the force that we perhaps expected them to be this season but there are some big ‘what ifs’.

What if Fernando Alonso had not crashed in Australia? I’m of the belief Sebastian Vettel would have won the race. Similarly, what if he had not retired early in Bahrain? Would he have put a closer challenge to Mercedes than Kimi Raikkonen. Quite possibly. These questions remained unanswered and I know there are those suggesting Ferrari have reliability issues caused by trying to close the gap.

I don’t buy that, it’s just that Mercedes have laid out a benchmark of incredible reliability over the course of the season. They still believe they’re in the fight and we hope to see that this weekend.

GLAD SHOOT-OUT WAS SHOT DOWN

After a two-race experiment, everyone has seen common sense and we’re back to the qualifying format of last season.

There has been a lot of ‘I told you so’ from people and it’s clear it didn’t work but you can see what the intention was and we still ended up with two very good races.

Was it embarrassing? I don’t think so personally and with another good race — and what has gone before with the Saturday shoot-out — all this will be long forgotten.

I think the powers that be have come up with the right solution and let’s hope that is reflected both with great qualifying sessions and a great race.