Hardy's peaked at the right time

He has also been beaten as favourite eight times during the same period and, even though this race ought to suit his late swooping style, it's hard to see him playing anything more than a minor role on his 12th visit to Cheltenham. Now to the Irish challenge, which contains a potent mix of proven Cheltenham performers and possible improvers paying their first visit to the home of jump racing.

Essex falls into the latter category and will have the added kickstart of AP McCoy in the saddle as he bids to follow up his commanding success in the totesport Trophy at Newbury last month.

He's lightly raced and improving fast but, along with Accordion Etoile, another major step forward is essential if he is to win hurdling's greatest prize.

Some bookmakers still have nightmares about the damage done when Brave Inca landed last year's Supreme Novices' Hurdle, but can he repeat the dose? The short answer is probably not. Colm Murphy has stressed all year that this rugged battler has been trained to peak tomorrow and his achievements in a short training career suggest it would be dangerous to ignore him.

Against that, Brave Inca has been found short of pace at crucial points on several occasions this season. It's easy to see him coming up the famous Cheltenham hill strongly, but whether he will finish strongly enough to reel in rivals with superior natural speed is another matter. Only a fool would question Harchibald's speed. Noel Meade's gelding has looked a world beater under outrageously confident rides from Paul Carberry this season, most recently when coming from somewhere near the M25 to cut down Rooster Booster in Kempton's Christmas Hurdle.

Meade points out that it isn't unprecedented for a star performer to flop on the gallops and then shine on the big day. He's right, of course, but the combination of this much stiffer course and that lifeless gallop have to be regarded as major negatives as he faces the toughest race of his life.

That leaves three and, whichever way you read the form book, splitting them is extremely difficult.

Macs Joy has never stopped progressing since being beaten in mediocre handicaps just over a year ago. The fact he has never run at Cheltenham before is the sole blot on an otherwise persuasive copybook, and so the choice for this year's Champion Hurdle has to fall between Back In Front and Hardy Eustace.

Back In Front has a cracking Cheltenham record and looked better than ever when forging clear of Inglis Drever in the Bula Hurdle here in December. He's sure to go close, but Hardy Eustace gets a narrow vote based on an even more impressive Cheltenham record and a belief that he is peaking at exactly the right time for the third year running.

The first indication that Hardy Eustace was ready to hit top form again came at Leopardstown in January, where he went down fighting to Macs Joy and Brave Inca in a three-way photo after being kept wide of his main rivals for much of the way.

A bloodless defeat of inferior rivals at Gowran Park last time provided further evidence that he is back on song, but the main clue to Hardy Eustace's chance tomorrow relates to his 33-1 success in this race last year.

One by one his rivals tried to peg him back that day and one by one they were seen off with a vengeance. Rooster Booster was the last to be turned away and, with the blinkers which he wore last year fitted again, everything looks in place for Hardy Eustace to stage a repeat performance.