Hardy is front runner

14 April 2012

On paper, it looks the strongest Gaelic raiding party since Brian Boru's army routed the Vikings at Clontarf in 1014. The entire Irish nation expects a similar result when the Cheltenham Festival explodes into life a week today, but which of the seven horses currently dominating betting on the Smurfit Champion Hurdle will come out on top?

Strange as it seems, the one with most to prove at present is the horse who has dominated the market for much of the winter.

Step forward Harchibald, who has treated some good horses with disdain at Newcastle and Kempton, only to work "like Delaney's donkey" in a crucial racecourse gallop at Navan on Saturday.

Trainer Noel Meade points out that horses have won big races after working badly in the past and has no intention of giving up on his stable star yet.

However, the Betfair vultures are already circling. The fact that you can now get 9-1 about a horse who was less than half that price last week tells a worrying story and, given the doubts about whether Harchibald will handle the hill even if he is on song, the omens hardly look encouraging.

Next for the chop is Brave Inca. Granted, he's been trained with next Tuesday solely in mind since his novice win at last year's Festival, but he looked worryingly short of pace at Leopardstown last time and might just struggle again when the pressure is on.

Two down, five to go. And the first is Accordion Etoile. His upwardly mobile trainer Paul Nolan responded to the excitement of winning the Galway Hurdle last summer by doubling over the stand rail looking all set to throw up.

Lord knows how he will react if Accordion Etoile prevails next Tuesday, but this flashy six-year-old is unproven in the top bracket and, along with the Tote Gold Trophy winner Essex, needs to make marked improvement to play more than a minor role. And then there were three, namely Macs Joy, Hardy Eustace and Back In Front.

Splitting them isn't easy, but form shown at the Festival is often worth its weight in gold. And Macs Joy doesn't have any.

Of course, he could prove even better up that punishing final hill than he is on flatter tracks like Leopardstown. The percentage call is to side with proven Cheltenham performers, though, and that brings us to Hardy Eustace and Back In Front.

Both are battle hardened at the top level and, in Dessie Hughes and Edward O'Grady, are trained by men who know what it takes to get a horse to concert pitch for Cheltenham.

Time to get the videos out in the hope of late inspiration. Back In Front was imperious when sprinting away with the Supreme Novices' Hurdle in 2003 and looked as good as ever when giving weight and a decisive beating to subsequent good winners in the Bula Hurdle in December.

Opposing him doesn't come easy, but cast your mind back to 16 March last year. Remember how Hardy Eustace jumped like a buck in front and how he shrugged off the challenge of Rooster Booster to sprint well clear from the last?

That performance will set the standard for the rest to match next Tuesday. And a reproduction of it will make Hardy Eustace hard to beat as he bids to join the elite group who have won more than one Champion Hurdle.

The magnificent seven
Ireland's Celtic Tigers for the Champion Hurdle

1 Hardy Eustace: No fluke about last year's 33-1 win and looks as good as ever. Massive chance.
2 Harchibald: Brilliant on flat tracks, but drifting badly in the market after working badly on Saturday.
3 Back In Front: Very impressive Cheltenham record and latest win looks very solid. Major player.
4 Macs Joy: Ultra progressive having won five of his last six. This is his first time at Cheltenham, though.
5 Brave Inca: Landed a gamble in novice company at last year's Festival and trained for this since.
6 Accordion Etoile: Progressing fast until a flop in the mud last time, but better expected if it stays dry.
7 Essex: Plenty to find on form, but on a roll after bolting up at Newbury and less exposed than most.

Hardy is front runner

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