Guineas dilemma sees Hills gamble on Munir

But that domino effect has still not toppled.

Yet one brave soul has already made his bed.

Richard Hills this week threw over deposed winter favourite Nayef, trained in Lambourn by Marcus Tregoning, in favour of Munir, based nearby with father Barry Hills.

Both horses run in the silks of jockey Hills' retaining owner, Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum. Understudy Willie Supple will benefit if he's made a mistake.

The case for Nayef is that he was the hype horse of 2000, impressed through style rather than substance and has pedigree as half-brother to 1989 2000 Guineas, Derby, Eclipse and King George hero Nashwan.

But against him is the feeling he may be better over a longer distance than the Guineas's mile and the fact he was only third in last month's Craven Stakes. Munir rudely cut in on Nayef's union with Hills when unexpectedly trouncing his trial opponents in last month's Greenham.

He showed speed, a turn of foot, ability to cope with testing going and readiness for this first Classic of 2001.

He may the superior horse or just the right horse for the ground, distance and timing of Saturday's race. He may be both. Or neither.

But how did Hills tackle his enviable dilemma? "I was lucky - both horses have run this season," he said.

"A lot can happen from age two to three and you go with the feel of a horse. You have to trust your own judgement, then if you do get it wrong - as inevitably sometimes happens and life goes on - nobody else is to blame."

Punters beware, however, in races for more inexperienced horses.

Given the choice of two in a maiden, Hills may ride the one with the best long-term future rather than perhaps a more forward counterpart. "That's always been my policy," he said.

Hills relied on his eyes and hands, watching tapes of Munir and Nayef's every race and comparing their 'feel' to Lahan and Harayir on whom, in 2000 and 1995 respectively, he won the fillies' equivalent, the 1000 Guineas, over the same course and distance.

His two trusted sounding boards are his agent of 12 years, John Robertson, and twin brother Michael, an in-demand freelance jockey. "You take feedback from the trainers and that's crucial if they feel a horse has suddenly come to himself," said Hills.

"But they also want you to ride their horse and can try to sway you. You have to read between the lines and learn whether they tend towards optimism - or even pessimism."

The trainer wants to be informed of a jockey's decision as early as possible.

Hills' retainer made the choice easier as he won't lose the ride should Nayef turn out to be a Derby horse.

A good relationship with the right work-rider is also key. Hills' retainer means his mounts hail from a handful of different yards, so he can't witness day-to-day developments at each one.

"Work-riders are the backbone and we're the glory boys. You get to know the good judges and listen hard to them. I have to compare the best from different stables. The boys at Mr Tregoning's yard say I've got this wrong," said Hills.

"Although Kieren's [Fallon] two horses haven't run yet this season, denying him the chance to fine-tune race tactics, I'll be surprised if he chooses the wrong one. There's no bias when both horses are in one yard. Sir Michael [Stoute] has an extremely good team and they'll know which is best - or most ready for Saturday."

But it can go wrong. Hills' Guineas victory on Harayir came only when Willie Carson, who then held the Hamdan retainer, rejected her for eventual second, Aqaarid.

"There was little more than a length between those fillies and I've never had to make a call as close as this," Hills admitted.