Grand National: Go for a Moral victory

13 April 2012

Grand National: Pinsticker's Guide

Tomorrow's Martell Grand National will be a very different race from the one contemplated a mere 24 hours ago. Water, water everywhere makes things easy. Your selection must handle extreme trips combined with heavy ground - given yesterday's conditions and more rain forecast. Suddenly, the 40-strong field looks very small indeed.

Start at the top of the betting. Papillon and Mely Moss fought out last year's finish. From just a 9lb higher mark, the titleholder has an outstanding theoretical chance of becoming the first horse since the great Red Rum in 1974 to win successive Nationals. Ted Walsh's charge has also kept his form remarkably well over unsuitably short trips this term.

But he needs fast ground for this marathon trip and, a quirky sort, may react against these unique fences as markedly as he took to them 12 months ago.

Course specialist Mely Moss aims to become the first horse since Red Rum in 1977 to trade second one year for first the next. He has a 3lb pull for a length-and-aquarter disparity with Papillon, but also prefers a sound surface. Stamina flaws will be exposed. Cross out the two market leaders.

Beau is the class act and even handles very soft going. But he faces a literally impossible task carrying 11st 10lb in these conditions. Red Rum - the ultimate National touchstone - carried 12st to victory in 1974 and 11st 8lb when completing his unique third success in 1977. Apart from that, only six other horses have triumphed under 11st or more since 1960 - none of them shouldering more than 11st 5lb. Strike Beau out.

On that same count lose Earthmover and Tresor de Mai, who aren't sure to get round anyway. Don't contemplate Dark Stranger. He needs a combination of fast ground and a shorter trip - the antithesis to what's required here. General Wolfe is a light of former days and never looked an out-and-out stayer.

National winners tend of late to be horses making their debut over these fences. Not since Little Polveir's win in 1989 has a horse failed this test one year and triumphed the next. West Tip also managed it in 1986, but it is a rare occurrence. That said, horses who take to the fences - running well for a long way or even completing at a respectful distance - tend to repeat that form, with diminishing impact, year on year.

This category is virtually guaranteed to get round, but without ever threatening to win you money. It comprises Addington Boy, Brave Highlander, Djeddah, Feels Like Gold, The Last Fling, Hollybank Buck, Esprit de Cotte, General Wolfe and Merry People, who made the cut after the late withdrawal of Inn At The Top.

So who can win? Moral Support tops the shortlist. His detractors will argue a novice hasn't lifted the National since Mr What in 1958. But very few actually contest this race so that statistic is distorted and, crucially, his Upper Lambourn trainer Charlie Mann has campaigned this nine-year-old more like a seasoned staying handicapper than a novice.

He won Chepstow's Rehearsal Chase in heavy ground from Jocks Cross, with Edmond (a rival again here) third, before the runner-up turned the tables on 4lb better terms in the Welsh National, Edmond even further adrift.

Last time out, Moral Support was a distant sixth while Jocks Cross was Frantic Tan's nearest pursuer in Haydock's De Vere Gold Cup from a 9lb higher mark. In this competitive event, ground faster than the official 'soft' accounts for these rivals' differing performances. Noel Fehily's mount became outpaced early - not a problem in tomorrow's conditions.

Despite his liking for the ground, there is little encouragement for thinking Henry Daly's charge can reverse form with the still-improving selection. Despite favourable weights, Edmond looks in the handicapper's grip, ran inexplicably badly last time and is too skinny at 10-1.

The best value in the race is another novice - Beau's stablemate, Spanish Main. Trainer Twiston-Davies specialises in winning big handicaps with novices and this youngster has been keeping good company, notably behind the likes of Sackville, Hati Roy and Behrajan. He handles heavy ground, stays all day, can respond positively to a first-time visor and is a cracking each-way bet at 50-1. Take him and Moral Support against the field.

Ex-Irish runner Inis Cara is another value option, having won a valuable chase at Leopardstown last season from a 9lb lower mark. He stayed on in eye-catching fashion when outclassed by Looks Like Trouble and Dorans Pride last November and handles heavy ground.

But the fact his form tailed off recently is off-putting for win purposes.

Village King ran well in last year's renewal before falling at the 20th. Although he's difficult to win with, he now stays convincingly and handles testing ground. The National has been the target all season for this very solid each-way chance.

Blowing Wind is champion jockey Tony McCoy's weapon of choice from ten Martin Pipe-trained runners and looks best of an unlikely lot.

The 1998 County Hurdle winner likes soft ground, remains well handicapped and is in good heart lately. He hasn't yet won beyond 2m3f, but found a second wind in last year's 3m1f William Hill National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival after getting outpaced halfway. A live outsider, but it's not hard to see him outstayed.

Of McCoy's cast-offs not yet mentioned, jumping errors are the main problem. But You're Agoodun will certainly stay if getting round and, like Strong Tel, would have faint each-way claims.

Proper stayers Paddy's Return and Noble Lord would have major chances in faster conditions. Smarty handles soft but loathes heavy going and doesn't impress as particularly well-handicapped. Hanakham has been difficult to train and is now too long in the tooth. Red Marauder handles cut and is on a handy mark, but didn't jump these fences at all well last year.