Galileo is Formula One material

If we're to believe trainer Aidan O'Brien, it's worrying this race was an after-thought - but so was the Irish Derby. Plan A was - and remains - the Breeders' Cup Classic over a dirt 10 furlongs, audaciously via the mile Queen Elizabeth II Stakes. Coolmore must deem King George victory a formality.

History is poised 50-50. Since the inaugural 1951 running, half have been won by three-year-olds and half by older horses. But, anecdotal evidence suggests an exceptional member of the classic generation - Nashwan in 1989, Generous in 1991, Lammtarra in 1995 - tends to win. Many believe the 12lb weight-for-age pull, intended to offset their immaturity, can tip the balance in their favour.

But here's an unsettling trend for Coolmore: of that celebrated trio, only Lammtarra ever won again. Nashwan fluffed his Arc trial and Generous was never at the races in his putative Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 'match' with winner, Suave Dancer. St Jovite in 1992 and King's Theatre in 1994 also fall foul of this statistic.

Lammtarra won the Arc, but his entire career spanned only four unbeaten starts - one less than Galileo already. 1990 winner Belmez later scraped home by a head from Snurge in the Great Voltigeur, but was then thrashed in the Arc and Japan Cup.

O'Brien kept going to the well with Giant's Causeway last year and never found that colossus wanting, but something usually gives. What price the alarmist double: Galileo to win tomorrow but never again? But can any of the supporting cast spoil this party? Given some cut in the ground, Golden Snake may have emerged from the shadows, but he's below par on this fast surface.

Stablemate Millenary is no forlorn hope - his against-all-odds Gordon Stakes win, when totally failing to handle Goodwood, told us he'd never cope with Epsom. Forget his Coronation Cup flop and you're left with the easy two-length conqueror of subsequent Hardwicke Stakes winner, Sandmason. Millenary relishes fast ground and, a proven 14-furlong stayer, will be one of the few with petrol left at the end of a strongly run race. But Hightori is the best each-way bet. He made a real impression staying on for third behind Fantastic Light at Royal Ascot, having been set too much to do. This longer trip will suit the colt who was fifth in last year's Arc after a hugely interrupted preparation.

It's hard to imagine progressive Morshdi and Derby fifth, Storming Home, turning the tables on Galileo. This race comes too quickly for Mutamam, Anabaa Blue may have taken advantage of a false pace in the French Derby and the rest aren't good enough.

There's no doubt this clash is far closer than the betting would have you believe - Galileo shouldn't be 4-7 to beat Fantastic Light. If the latter drifts to 3-1 amid the Galileo hype, you should back him for the sheer affront of it. But if Galileo moves to 10-11, that's a fair (albeit unattractive) price for precocity to triumph - after a proper fight. Let's hope that's what the race delivers.