Death of the Big Four

And then there were three.

In August I was chatting with a couple of mates about our predictions for the season and, naturally, we came to the subject of who would finish in the top four.

To my friends' surprise I came up with:

1. Chelsea
2. Arsenal
3. Manchester United
4. Liverpool

My reasoning was thus: I'd seen Chelsea take apart a much-improved Sunderland at the Stadium of Light; Arsenal, despite eventually being beaten, had outplayed an ordinary-looking Manchester United side; and Liverpool appeared overly reliant on their two talismans.

At the time I thought that Liverpool would still have enough to secure fourth spot but now I'm not even sure they'll be strong enough for that. The top half of the league is a much more convoluted place compared to a year ago. Without Steven Gerrard and Fernando Torres, Liverpool's squad is matched by Manchester City, Aston Villa and Spurs, all of whom have a great shot at securing the coveted fourth spot.

For Liverpool fans this must be pretty upsetting. After all the Benitez era started off with "that night in Istanbul", to use one of Clive Tyldesley's most famous clichés. The Spaniard had cobbled together a squad made up of mediocre players brought in by former boss Gerard Houllier and a smattering of quality new signings and somehow beaten an ageing but dangerous Milan side despite going 3-0 down. True, they were incredibly fortunate to run-out as winners, but the determination of the team and the tactical acumen of Benitez gave considerable hope for the future.

But victory over Milan was a chimera; with the sheen of progress given extra sparkle by last season's second-place finish. Yes, Liverpool had performed well in the run-in, but the four-point gap at the end of the season was a result of Manchester United's stuttering form, rather than Liverpool turning into genuine title contenders.

More importantly, especially with regard to the current campaign, Liverpool's late surge was built on the formidable form of Gerrard and Torres, who scored 13 times in the last ten games. This season they have struggled in the games where one or both have been injured.

Gerrard and Torres are among the handful of genuine world-class players in the Liverpool side, alongside goalkeeper Pepe Reina and defensive midfielder Javier Mascherano. A fifth player, Xabi Alonso was sold to Real Madrid and although you could argue he was moving to a bigger club, Benitez's relentless courtship of Gareth Barry - who he subsequently failed to sign – was probably just as important a factor. Without Alonso, they