Fast way to lose money

"Because the first two furlongs of this month's 1,000 Guineas were run so slowly, the way to understand what happened to your horse is to think of it as a six-furlong race - rather than a mile - in which the leaders had a five-length start on the hold-up horses," said Willoughby.

"When you look at a horse's finishing position, bear in mind where it was after two furlongs when assessing its merit. It's been said beaten favourite Gossamer is no good because she wasn't closing at the finish. But she had to sprint hard for three furlongs to recover ground lost early and no horse can maintain that."

Pace - either the likely lack or surfeit of it - is a key factor. It distorts as many results as ground or draw and can work in mysterious ways.

Racing's superpowers, Coolmore and Godolphin, know how to play it. They can afford to run 'pacemakers' to ensure a strong, even gallop for their main hopes. Without Annus Mirabilis or Give The Slip setting a brutal pace, the true ability of Swain and Fantastic Light might never have emerged.

But it can also backfire. The Jockey Club demands 'pacemakers' run on their merits and in Ascot's Queen Elizabeth II Stakes last September, Summoner took them at their word. Jockey Richard Hills established a clear lead and then kicked two furlongs out on the 33-1 chance, outsmarting Frankie Dettori on superior Godolphin stablemate Noverre.

Hills had also been successful with the same tactics in the same race on 66-1 shot Maroof in 1994. Summoner and Noverre re-oppose in this Saturday's Lockinge Stakes at Newbury and it's hard to imagine them finishing in the same order.

European turf racing, particularly in France, adheres to the pattern of holding up horses for a fast final two or so furlongs - unlike dirt or US racing, which takes place at an even pace throughout. This is partly dictated by how the horses are prepared.

In the US, endurance training dominates - horses are blasted over four furlongs three or four times a week, developing muscle predisposed to its task. In the UK, although Mark Johnston builds aerobic fitness, trainers such as Sir Michael Stoute prefer their horses to travel on the bridle before accelerating.

History also plays a role, conditioning us to seek dazzling acceleration from well off the pace - think Warning or Dancing Brave. But these wing-and-a-prayer tactics are difficult to pull off every day.

Punters should know that the more tactical speed a horse displays, the more successful it will be as a racehorse. Yet this proven statistic is not generally reflected in frontrunner's odds which are normally far bigger than they should be.

That's another thing to think about in your local bookie this week.