Exit Swinger set to show the way

That would effect a mighty 15lb rise in the weights, leaving Grand Annual winner Samakaan - gambled on as one of the chief dangers in the race - as the 11st 10lb top-rated horse from his previous, cosy slot of 10st 9lb.

Exit Swinger would then carry 10st 13lb, readily allowing Tony McCoy to make the weight rather than struggling in the sauna beyond what should be reasonable to reach below his usual 10st 2lb minimum.

It would be nice to think Pipe has refused to offer McCoy the wasting option.

Richard Johnson partnered Exit Swinger in the Thomas Pink Gold Cup - only his mount's second start over fences in the UK - when McCoy finished ten lengths ahead. Save a blunder two fences from home, leading his rider to accept defeat, the runner-up would have been a lot closer to a very well-handicapped winner.

At just five years of age, he is capable of great improvement and handles the likely soft ground with fluency. Even if the weights don't rise, he's on only a 4lb higher mark than his last Cheltenham visit and 2lb if they do. The value went when Native Upmanship was declared a nonrunner, but he's difficult to oppose.

He holds Thomas Pink Gold Cup fourth and eighth, Red Marauder and Robbo.

The former is 6lb better off for ten lengths and was since a good fifth in the Hennessy, but banged his leg in that race and suffered an infection since. The exercise he's missed is offputting, although he'll like the ground.

In being unpredictable and sometimes uncooperative creature, Robbo is not alone in this field.

He was fit from the Flat on his seasonal debut and needed the race to fall exactly right when winning last time out over further on Kelso's heavy ground. That foible tends to be exposed in this class.

Cross out Or Royal, too, for temperament reasons - only a drop to plating class kidded a win from him.

Upgrade has his quirks - if McCoy isn't riding, forget him. There are stamina doubts about In The Blood and jumping doubts about Irish raider, Lyreen Wonder, who unshipped his rider or fell on four of his nine starts last term.

Samakaan races off a mark 1lb higher than his Aintree defeat by Jungli and, stepping up to an unfamiliar trip, offers little value - albeit with the caveat of being trained by strike-rate queen, Venetia Williams.

Both Go Roger Go and Hill Society unseated behind Samakaan in the Grand Annual and have also never won at this longer trip. The latter was a narrow runner-up in the 1998 Arkle but has disappointed since. If he were to bounce back anywhere, this is the place and he benefits from Tony Dobbin on board.

Go Roger Go is currently 1lb 'wrong' at the weights and 3lb higher than when fancied for the Grand Annual, yet has potential.

Red Marauder's stablemate Red Ark is an improving young chaser but, while he copes in soft ground, he's better on faster. Native Charm was progressive and consistent last term, even splitting Rockforce and Edredon Bleu on one occasion, but can only be mildly fancied after pulling up on both starts this term.

Instead, the main threat to Exit Swinger can come from stable companion, Blowing Wind. A talented hurdler, he hasn't matched that over fences but can progress this term from a lenient mark. His Cheltenham Festival run behind Marlborough was under-rated, failing more from a lack of stamina rather than talent. This trip is ideal.

Soldat has proved disappointing given his hurdle form and jumps badly, although he managed these austere fences well enough on unsuitably fast ground at the Festival.

If lining up, stablemate Fadalko will also love underfoot conditions and could lug a big burden to a place, but Connor Macleod showed his best form on a sounder surface.

Connections will wait until the last minute before deciding whether Red Ark and Red Marauder will run in tomorrow's big chase.

The Norman Mason-trained pair are both in the £80,000 feature, while Red Ark has an alternative engagement in the extended two-mile Wragge & Co Handicap Chase on the same Cheltenham card.

Jockey Richard Guest, assistant to Mason, said last night: "We won't make a decision until tomorrow but they are both fine.

"We'll see what the weather does and they'll have a blow in the morning and we'll see how they come out of that." Venetia Willams has confirmed the booking of Richard Johnson for leading fancy Samakaan in the Cheltenham contest.

Johnson is set to deputise for Samakaan's regular partner Norman Williamson who will ride the Edward O'Gradytrained Go Roger Go. On the betting front Ladbrokes report support for Connor Macleod and have trimmed his odds to 20-1.