Championship material

14 April 2012

One of them is guaranteed to start odds-on and the other will probably go off at around 5-4. Don't be surprised if both of them win, but Alamshar and Oasis Dream may not have things all their own way when they bid to cement their championship credentials at Leopardstown and Haydock tomorrow.

Those of us who backed Alamshar for the Derby are still wondering how he managed to finish only third behind Kris Kin and The Great Gatsby.

John Oxx's colt took his revenge on the latter with a battling defeat of the star French colt Dalakhani in the Irish Derby, and the score with Kris Kin was evened up in the King George when Alamshar put up a sparkling performance to surge three and a half lengths clear of an excellent field. Now comes another acid test against the powerful Falbrav in the Ireland The Food Island Champion Stakes.

Some pundits have speculated that Alamshar might have been a shade flattered in racing close to a relatively steady pace at Ascot, while others feel the effort of beating a field which included Sulamani, Bollin Eric and Falbrav could have left a mark.

But take away the theories and it's clear the pivotal question here relates to whether Alamshar deserves to be such a short priced favourite back at 10 furlongs and against some cracking older horses.

The answer is probably not, and at more than double the price Falbrav is the clear value bet under conditions which look tailor-made for him.

Falbrav's below-par fifth in the King George is best ignored given that he raced alone in lane eight for over a mile on rain softened ground.

An overall record of six Group 1 wins in the last 14 months proves beyond doubt that Luca Cumani's five-year-old is at the peak of his powers, and Falbrav looked in tremendous-form at York last month when making some good horses look second rate in the International Stakes.

Pacemakers have often played a pivotal role in this race, which has gone to a photo several times in recent years, and it looks as though France will play hare to the hounds tomorrow if the ground eases enough for last year's Derby hero High Chaparral to take his chance.

The way the race develops will change massively if those two defect, but Falbrav has never been a prisoner to tactics and his potent turn of foot can prove crucial.

Oasis Dream lines up for Haydock's Stanley Leisure Sprint Cup on the back of a thrilling defeat of the Australian star Choisir in the July Cup and a ruthlessly efficient dismissal of The Tatling in York's Nunthorpe Stakes. So what can trouble a colt with no apparent flaws in his make-up?

The Tatling's amazing progress this year reflects huge credit on Milton Bradley, but those looking for a value bet might find it worthwhile to link Oasis Dream in forecast bets with Airwave and Twilight Blues.

Airwave was a popular choice to be champion sprinter herself after a facile Temple Stakes win at Sandown in the spring, and honourable defeats behind Choisir at Ascot and in Oasis Dream's July Cup have bruised her reputation only slightly. Clearly, the fact that she's been absent with an infection since Newmarket is a worry, and Henry Candy reports that he has never run a horse off so little work in 30 years as a trainer. But Airwave is too good a filly to be allowed to go off at a big price.

Twilight Blues is a more speculative choice as a possible threat. That said, he's had excuses on a couple of occasions - including when badly hampered in the July Cup.

Big-race selections - Leopardstown: 4.00, 1 Falbrav (nap); 2 Alamshar; 3 Moon Ballad. Haydock Park: 2.15, 1 Oasis Dream; 2 Airwave; 3 Twilight Blues.

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