Carnival Dancer can take the starring role

13 April 2012

Sir Michael Stoute's first Dubai Champion Stakes gamble has already failed this year. Rain fell yesterday in sufficient amounts to remove Tough Speed from the line-up, just five days after he joined it at a cost of £24,000. That leaves stablemates, No Excuse Needed and Carnival Dancer, to pick up the tab.

It's odd that Tough Speed's trainermanagement team have stood their ground with another fast-ground type in No Excuse Needed. Retained jockey Kieren Fallon is booked and Newmarket's £448,000 Group One event is currently his preferred option over the Breeders' Cup Mile on Saturday week.

But with unpredictable weather due overnight, the plot thickens for this best single day's Flat racing in the British calendar. It's been dry at HQ since yesterday morning and the ground stands on the easy side of good. It will be no faster than that tomorrow, but - depending on how much rain comes - it could get a lot softer.

These ten furlongs will suit lightly raced No Excuse Needed, who ultimately won Goodwood's Celebration Mile with some authority after briefly making heavy weather of pegging back under-achieving Tamburlaine. Better is required here and rain would be bad news - he floundered in soft ground as a juvenile.

Carnival Dancer may be the better proposition for Stoute to register a back-to-back double and third victory in this contest, emulating Kalanisi's success of last year and Pilsudski in 1997. Cheveley Park Stud's representative is a worthy understudy for Medicean, their recently retired Eclipse hero.

The three-year-old colt boasts fiercely progressive form, trouncing three solid elder rivals in Albarahin ( reopposing but held), Island House and Right Wing when last seen in Ayr's Scottish Classic. Way back then in July, Stoute pinpointed the Champion as Carnival Dancer's next target - a tip in itself. He revels in easy going.

Nayef has already done much to redeem a reputation shattered by defeat in the 2,000 Guineas and absence from the Derby - two events for which he was winter favourite. His handler, Marcus Tregoning, deserves plenty of credit for holding his nerve and racking up a Group Three treble with this good-looking colt.

Yet Nayef suffered a hard race when taking Ascot's Cumberland Lodge Stakes 19 days ago, drained by very soft ground and a 12-furlong trip that seemed to stretch his stamina. He's a formidable favourite here if recovered from his exertions, but that doubt exists. He's also been beating smaller fields of inferior rivals. Best Of The Bests looks pick of the Godolphin trio, with proven Group One form to his name. This is his best trip. Equerry is improvingbut also finished tired on his only outing of 2001 at Longchamp last month. This is a big ask so soon. Tobougg won the Dewhurst on this day last year, but is inconsistent and may need further.

Given the Group One record of trainer Aidan O'Brien this term, both Hawkeye and Beckett merit respect. The former's profile is more solid - he's progressive but wouldn't want the ground too soft. Of the rest, last year's third Distant Music is overpriced. Provided it doesn't rain too much, he holds eachway claims.

Champion Stakes selections:

1, Carnival Dancer; 2, Nayef; 3, Distant Music.

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Carnival Dancer can take the starring role

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