Summer promises great days out

11 April 2012

As you trudged to work in the icy rain and wind of what looks set to be the coldest March for five years, you may not have noticed that British Summer Time has officially started.

But after what forecasters say has been the wettest 12 months since 1697 - there could be good news on the horizon.

Britain's leading long-range weather forecasters are agreed that we could be in for a run of fine weather over the next six months.

Former BBC presenter Bill Giles, who runs London Weather Index Limited, said: "All the signs are that we are going to have a good summer. It is a bit like the law of averages - it would be very rare indeed to have a continuation of the bad weather we have endured for the past six months."

Giles uses records going back to the mid-17th century coupled with the Met Office's weather model and latest research.

His rival forecaster, Jim Dale of British Weather Services, who bases his probability forecast on more than 30 years of weather records, agreed that the long-suffering British public could actually get a glorious summer this year.

He said: "After some of the most inclement weather on record we believe that there will be a significant improvement. We should get sunny, warm dry weather and the best summer since 1996."

He expects temperatures to reach a maximum high of 30C, and August may even develop into a mini-drought. However he said that some of the major events in the social and sporting calendar could still be spoilt by bad weather.

Another forecaster, Piers Corbin, of Weather Action, predicted that on 3 May - the likely General Election date - there will be showers in the morning, clearing up later in the day.

Political lore holds that the weather on election day can have a significant influence on voters and the turnout. Poor weather, so the tradition goes, tends to favour the Conservatives on the basis that Labour voters are less committed overall, and, being less affluent, are more likely to travel to the polling station on foot.

The landslide for Tony Blair during the May 1997 election has in part been credited to the fine weather on polling day.

We asked Mr Dale and Mr Giles to predict the weather for a series of key events of the social season.

Election: 3 May (expected). Dale: "Dry in the South." Giles: "Quite warm with maximum temperatures of 18C to 19C, and shouldn't rain. Partially cloudy. It has only ever rained once on 3 May over the past 10 years."

Glyndebourne opera festival: Opening day 17 May. Dale: "Changeable." Giles: "Cloudy day with maximum temperature of just under 17C. Chance of showers."

Chelsea Flower Show: 22 to 25 May. Dale: "The outlook is not good - we are expecting it to be highly changeable." Giles: "Very pleasant for the entire period really. The temperature rising to just under 20C and staying there, with partial cloud cover. Possibility of rain on the 24th."

Stella Artois Tennis Championships: 11 to 17 June. Dale: "Should be fine." Giles: "Will start overcast with a tad of rain, but should develop quite nicely with clear skies and maximum temperatures of just under 23C."

The Ashes cricket tour: May to August. Dale: "Starts off dry but a chance of rain and cooler temperatures towards end of the series." Giles: "The period is dogged with the possibility of rain on every day of the series and quite a strong breeze. Temperatures remain quite high though at about 21C down in the South of England."

Royal Ascot (if it goes ahead): 19 to 22 June. Dale: "Changeable." Giles: "Further pleasant June days, with temperatures reaching 19C and with the sun being hidden by some cloud cover."

Wimbledon: starts 25 June. Dale: "Changeable." Giles: "Should be pretty good. We do not expect a heat-wave - temperatures around 23C, which is 73F, but there won't be a great deal of rain either."

Henley Royal Regatta: 4 to 8 July. Dale: "Very nice, dry sunny and warm." Giles: "Should be very pleasant with temps just going over 22C with a cool breeze."

Glorious Goodwood: 31 July to 4 August. Dale: "Glorious Goodwood could be too glorious and uncomfortably hot for some." Giles: "Should be very pleasant. Lots of sunshine with temperatures rising to just under 25C, with a cool breeze and hardly any chance of rain."

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