Cocky Simon Cowell tells party guests he'll definitely win X Factor

Simon Cowell told guests at his 50th birthday party that he has this year's X Factor "licked".

Sing when you're winning: Danyl Johnson, Jamie Archer and Olly Murs with Simon Cowell

The pop mogul was overheard bragging to his pals this weekend that he has by far the strongest category in this year's competition.

Sleepy beauty: Cheryl leaving bash at 3am

Cowell threw a £1m party at Wrotham Park in Hertfordshire, where the theme was... himself.

Against a backdrop of huge images of the X Factor judge and among waiters wearing masks of his face, Simon was overheard telling one guest: "I've got it licked this year. I have the strongest category by far and my job of whittling them down to the final three was definitely the hardest.

"I could have taken all six to the live final. My lot are in a different league. I honestly believe I have a winner here — and we all know what happens when I get a winner. Just look at what happened to Leona Lewis."

It looks as if the bookies agree with him, pricing his three contestants in the over-25s category as first, second and fourth favourites. Essex boy Olly Murs is tipped to win at 11/2, while music teacher Danyl Johnson is 3/1 and afro-haired Jamie Archer is 7/1. The live shows featuring all 12 finalists revealed last night start on ITV on Saturday night.

All the X Factor judges — Louis Walsh, Dannii Minogue and Cheryl Cole — were at Cowell's party, where guests drank £500 bottles of Cristal champagne. "Simon" was spelt out with pasta in the soup starter, while entertainment came from Westlife, Leona Lewis and American Idol judge Randy Jackson. The highlight was a hologram of Frank Sinatra, as revealed by the Lite on Friday.

Former Baywatch star David Hasselhoff had to be helped out of a back entrance after reportedly getting too drunk after only two hours. Katie Price was said to be stony-faced when her boyfriend Alex Reid was dragged on stage by
lingerie-clad dancers and covered in oil during a saucy romp.

The party officially ended at 3.30am yesterday and Cowell was one of the last to leave at 4.45am.