Heathrow crash risk ‘raised by third runway’

Tory mayoral candidate Zac Goldsmith has vowed to resign as MP for Richmond Park if David Cameron backs Heathrow expansion.

The risk of a Heathrow crash is still very small. The research found the likelihood of a crash at a three-runway Heathrow would be around one every 16 years, compared to roughly one in every 26 years without expansion.

The commission’s July report said the HSL had concluded “that the changes to the background crash rate are minimal” whether another runway is built or not.

But this rate measured the likelihood of a crash at least 10km from Heathrow or Gatwick. HSL experts analysed crash rates within 10km of an airfield, normally a take-off or landing.

They modelled possible changes between 2013 and 2050 and found for Heathrow the highest crash rate would be with an additional north-west runway. Their report added: “The scenario for Heathrow with the highest crash rates represents an increase of 60 per cent in the crash rate compared to 2013.”

For Gatwick the crash rate is more than doubled with a second runway, but risks are still lower than Heathrow.

Boris Johnson’s aviation adviser Daniel Moylan said: “The risk of a plane crashing into London is mercifully low but it is very strange that the Airports Commission has buried this proof that it will be higher with a third runway than without.”

A commission spokesman said evidence in its report “was subject to extensive analysis and consultation”, and Heathrow said it was “one of the safest airports in the world”.

International Development Secretary Justine Greening, MP for Putney, has warned that expanding Heathrow would increase the risk of a plane crash on London. She was accused of “scaremongering of the worst type” but now appears to have been vindicated.