Postal voting trends favour Ken's rivals

A borough-by-borough breakdown of postal vote applications suggests that Conservative and Lib-Dem areas of London are keener to take part in the election than those supporting Labour's Ken Livingstone.

Only two of the capital's top 10 boroughs for postal vote applications are Labour-controlled.

Boris Johnson-supporting boroughs such as Barnet, Bromley, Wandsworth and Croydon have piled up tens of thousands of postal vote applications, more than twice as many as some Labour boroughs.

The figures provide encouragement for Mr Johnson in today's election. London local elections have always been dogged by poor turnout and experts agree that City Hall will go to the candidate who can most effectively bring out his voters.

Postal vote applications have in the past been a good - though not infallible - predictor of an area's likely overall turnout.

Mr Johnson has been mounting a "doughnut strategy" of intensively wooing voters in the outer boroughs who are more likely to be Tory but who have not voted in large numbers in previous mayoral elections.

Voters in these areas have been bombarded with leaflets, canvassers and direct mail while Livingstonesupporting areas of inner London have been less intensively targeted.

The postal vote application figures suggest this strategy may be working, with the upper reaches of the table dominated by Tory and Lib-Dem councils in outer London and most Labour councils in the lower half.

The figures should be interpreted with caution as Labour-controlled inner-city boroughs are on average a little smaller than the outer boroughs and also because Tory voters, who are more likely to be working or to live a long way from the nearest polling station, may be more likely to want to vote by post. Some boroughs, such as Barnet and Hackney, have also promoted postal voting heavily. Hackney held an all-postal election for its borough council in 2002.

Finally, not all those who have applied for postal votes will use them.

However, even allowing for this there does appear to be stronger enthusiasm for voting in outer London and less enthusiasm elsewhere.

A study by the Greater London Assembly's pollster, Ipsos Mori, this week described turnout as an " absolutely vital factor" in today's election. The pollster's last mayoral survey, for Unison, found a six-point lead for Mr Livingstone but this was based on the highly unlikely assumption that turnout today will be 61 per cent.

Labour figures say that if Mr Livingstone can bring turnout in today's voting up to 50 per cent then he will win. Turnout in the 2004 mayoral election was 37 per cent. The highest turnout of any London local election in recent times was 48 per cent in the 1990 borough polls.