Commentary: Boris a dead cert for Commons comeback - but leadership talk is daft

It is now 99 per cent certain that Boris Johnson will be back at the Commons in May 2015. But what will he find there?

Excitable talk of him challenging for the Tory leadership within months is plain daft. It is not in his mind and, anyway, the hard truth is that most of the 2010 intake of rising Tory MPs, let alone the 2015 intake, don't know the Mayor at all, in the sense that they have never sat down to chat with him or tease out the real politician behind the confusing media persona. They would not risk their futures on a man they don't yet understand.

Even if David Cameron fell under a bus, it would be too soon for a Boris coronation. But my understanding is that the Prime Minister has no intention of retiring during the next parliament. Instead, he believes his political mission is clearer than ever and will be standing for a full term in May. That suggests the right approach for BJ's ambitions coincides with what Dave wants, which is to be a loyal part of "the national team".

Boris's job prospects, I have learned, are very good. Senior Tories doubt he could join the Cabinet while still Mayor (contrary to some headlines today) but he can be certain of a big role.

Last month, this newspaper revealed he was pitching for a role as the Government's infrastructure minister, a role that would be ideal for building his profile and political alliances. "I can imagine Boris doing that," muses a prominent Tory.

So the red carpet is being shampooed at Westminster. Now all he needs is a seat.

My expectation is that Boris's allies will aim to have him crowned as Sir George Young's successor. Their recent claim that he doesn't want to overshadow party conference by hunting for a seat is baloney (he could overshadow conference with or without a seat) but it indicates that Boris wants this matter settled sooner.

Sir Peter Tapsell's Lincolnshire seat would be his if he wants it, but it is a long way from City Hall which would strain the idea of a job-share until 2015. Boris's fallback may be to wait until the new year and persuade Dave to open a safe berth by giving someone a peerage. Tony Baldry, an Oxfordshire MP, is said to be eyeing the red leather.