Comment: Ken must distance himself from Labour

The mayoral election is approaching its final stretch and the past week has seen a crop of polls. Today's from YouGov shows a narrowing of Boris Johnson's lead over Ken Livingstone. Indeed, with the exception of last Monday's lead of 13 per cent, YouGov has shown a perceptible shift of support towards Mr Livingstone. This week, Brian Paddick is up two points to 12 on "first preferences" yet still shows no sign of a breakthrough.

But not all the polling news is so encouraging for Ken. A MORI poll in yesterday's Observer put Mr Johnson two per cent ahead of Mr Livingstone, having shown the latter one per cent ahead last week. Moreover, the national polls continue to show Labour in desperate trouble and the mayoral polls are converging towards a modest Johnson lead of about four to five per cent.

Seen against the backdrop of Labour's national position, Mr Livingstone is doing incredibly well. The fact the London race can be described as "neck-and-neck" while the Tories are well ahead nationally attests to Ken's Teflon tendency.

But the conflicting messages make it hard to be sure which side - if either - is winning. Ken has continued his "I am what I am and the voters either take it or leave it" approach and he has few new policies. Rather, he has been stressing his experience to deal with the business of government. Which is fair enough, though does not cope with the "time for a change" argument he faces.

Boris has maintained his shambolic approach to the race. He is evidently mobbed in the street and can charm an audience. But he still has not got a grip on being serious, finding it hard to cope with predictable questions from the media. If the Johnson campaign is to convince London that its candidate could run the capital, they need to tell us who would do the day-to-day, complex stuff. Mr Livingstone has demonstrated this capacity for almost eight years.

On 1 May, there is evidence the Conservatives will have strong support among over-55s, significant given that people are more likely to turn out as they get older. But perhaps most important for Labour is the risk their voters will stay at home. Not voting is the established mechanism for fed-up electors to send a message to the Government. Ken's team need to motivate voters to differentiate between Labour and Livingstone. They have just 17 days left to succeed.

Tony Travers is Director of the Greater London Group at the London School of Economics.