London after Lockdown: Total relaxation of measures now risks a whole new outbreak

Here in the UK, we see the NHS consuming PPE at an exponential rate positively correlating to the number of Covid-19 hospital admissions.

The safety and lives of healthcare workers is paramount when dealing with a disease that is highly infectious and has no cure. The message that needs to resonate with people is that lockdown measures were introduced to reduce the spread of the virus in our society. This virus is not like the seasonal flu.

As we are in uncharted territory with Covid-19, it is only reasonable to take every day carefully. This may seem frustrating as many countries are in the early phase of relaxing their lockdowns. The UK government has been waiting for the data before implementing any relaxation of lockdown. This cautious approach helps in preventing a second wave of cases, which could overwhelm our NHS.

The Government is right to consider five principles when it looks at the risks and benefits of easing lockdown.

First, to stabilise and maintain continuous support of the critical care services in the NHS.

Second, to closely monitor whether or not there is a “sustained and consistent” fall in the death rate in the UK.

Third, capturing and analysing data to observe that the rate of infection is at a manageable level. Fourth, taking measures to meet the demand for PPE and testing. Fifth, and the most important, avoiding a second peak. Contact tracing is an additional strategy, that can speed up the process of easing the lockdown.

Learning from severely affected countries, trialling relaxation in rural areas and slowly introducing it through the channels of services that can restart the economy may help us recover from this lockdown.

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But the complete relaxation of measures without stage-by-stage planning risks a new peak. If that were to happen, we would have to stay indoors even longer.