Taking on Donald Trump: A sweep of Democrat successes is predicted in the upcoming US midterms

For the Democrats, the midterms are crucial. If they win the House — which is increasingly likely — Trump ‘will have more than impeachment to worry about’, writes Melanie Zanona, a congressional reporter for political newspaper, The Hill. According to Zanona, among the ways the Democrats could ‘inflict pain on the President and his party’ would be to subpoena potentially revealing documents, such as Trump’s much-talked-about tax returns, and force White House officials to testify before Congress about his finances and any possible conflicts of interest. They could investigate allegations of sexual harassment against him, which first raised their head during his election campaign. And depending on the outcome of special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into possible links between the Trump campaign and Russia to influence the election, they could reopen the House Russia probe, which in March concluded there was ‘no collusion’.

In short, they could make Trump’s life very difficult, causing a knock-on effect around the world and emboldening his critics in the British Government. What’s in no doubt if they win the House, is that Democrats will stymie his legislative agenda, blocking anything he sees as a priority, such as funding his much-vaunted border wall.

As far as the Senate races are concerned, all eyes are on Nevada, Arizona, Tennessee and Texas, where they are closest. In Texas, the race between O’Rourke and incumbent Ted Cruz has become something of a national fixation. The Washington Post said O’Rourke is getting more attention than any other 2018 candidate.

Despite O’Rourke’s impressive rally in the Texas capital, he still has tough competition in Cruz, the firebrand senator who vehemently opposes same-sex marriage, railed against the Affordable Care Act and once said President Barack Obama was ‘an apologist for radical Islamic terrorists’. Cruz is popular in Texas. He has called for more armed police officers in schools — something that resonates with his base — and has decried O’Rourke as being on the ‘extreme left’, pushing an agenda that includes gun control.

Chris Hooks, a political writer based in Austin, says that while O’Rourke is seen by some outside Texas as being a very left wing candidate, his message on the campaign trail at least has been far more about community and patriotism. "These are the ideas that Barack Obama hit in 2008 when he was campaigning and O’Rourke has said that was a big part of his political upbringing."

Hooks says O’Rourke has a sense of authenticity and spontaneity that follows his campaign around — ‘you can feel that’ — and that he has been very good at connecting with young people. O’Rourke has travelled to each of Texas’s 254 counties. "He’s been good at meeting young voters where they are. The campaign uses Facebook live streaming, and there really is a palpable sense of excitement, particularly in big cities like Houston, Austin and San Antonio, in a way I haven’t seen in previous campaigns."

There’s a trope us Brits in the States sometimes throw out when attempting to explain British politics to Americans. It goes like this: "Our Labour party is like your Democratic party. And our Conservative party is like your Democratic party." That seems truer now than ever. The Republican party that once promoted free market conservatism and boasted of its moral leadership around the world is almost unrecognisable today. God, guns and gays have been wedge issues for the Republicans for some time now. Trump just threw a Muslim ban, border wall and a lifeline to the coal industry into the mix for good measure.

Meanwhile, the Democrats who champion women’s reproductive rights, want to see affordable healthcare for all and support marriage equality, seem more in tune than ever with London-style liberalism across the pond.

A recent poll said voters were deeply rattled by Trump’s impulsive behaviour and protracted trade war, and that he had ‘diminished America’s standing in the world’. As Trevor Thrall, a senior fellow at US libertarian think tank the Cato Institute, wrote: "It turns out that heckling Nato and imposing tariffs on allies doesn’t do much for a president’s approval ratings." And by a margin of 63 per cent to 25, Thrall said Americans think maintaining good relationships with allies — which obviously includes those in London — is far more important.

"Hope springs eternal," says Elizabeth Frost Sainty, who runs the Stair Sainty gallery in Dover Street with her British husband Guy Stair Sainty. She says there are ‘too many’ exciting candidates emerging to mention, but has been campaigning for Jacky Rosen in Nevada against the Republican incumbent.

If the ‘blue wave’ happens, Frost Sainty says that a process of de-Trumpification can begin immediately: "Tax cuts can be undone by a Democratic Congress. The dismantling of environmental protection policies will not endure." Mark Bergman says the priority will be ‘to reset the balance and try to create a more bipartisan approach to things’. He adds that the midterms are being fought on domestic issues, while the presidential election in 2020 will be ‘about America’s place in the world’. But only once the midterms have shown ‘what messages have worked and what messengers have worked’ will it be time to think of a Democrat challenger to Trump in 2020.

And should such a challenger succeed, would he or she strengthen relations between the US and the UK, and perhaps even visit the London embassy that Trump refused to open? "Of course they will," says Frost Sainty. "I will make sure of it!" But Bergman sounds an ominous note. "I suspect the next president, whether a Democrat or a Republican, will readdress the conduct of foreign policy," he says. "However, I think it is fair to say the world has changed and we are not going back to a pre-2016 dynamic. We live in a very different world."

Illustration by Michelle Thompson