Warning shots for a wider war

The conspiracy theories should be discounted. There is nothing to indicate that this is primarily the work of infiltrators from Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda, though they are undoubtedly being drawn to Baghdad like moths to a candle.

This is primarily the work of Saddam loyalists, remnants of his armies and the Fedayeen militias. It is the work of Iraqis and the targets are mainly Iraqis.

The attacks on the UN, the International Red Cross, as well as the Iraqi police, are carefully calculated. They warn international organisations to keep away and show the Iraqis of Baghdad and the Sunni triangle they are not safe.

As the American forces approached Baghdad, many of the soldiers of the five Republican Guard divisions who had been ordered to defend the capital fled their positions. It was assumed most walked home, but a good number - possibly up to 20,000 or even 30,000 - went to ground to prepare for the long guerrilla campaign now beginning.

While much of the weaponry and soldiery involved in this Ramadan offensive seem to be mostly Iraqi, there are signs of foreign involvement. Elements of the Shi'ite Hezbollah guerrilla movement have been moving in from Syria and Lebanon.

The deadly precision and surprise of the attacks, including the bombing of the UN headquarters in August, are reminiscent of attacks in Lebanon. Veteran Hezbollah strategist Imad Mugnaya is known to have been active in forging links in Iraq, and with the entourage of Saad bin Laden, Osama's favourite son, in Iran.

So far the fighting is confined to Baghdad and central Iraq. The nightmare is that Hezbollah may be planning for the long war - linking the fighting in Israel and the Palestinian territories with the unrest in Iraq, and finally with Osama bin Laden's war of pan-Islamic paranoia.