Warmer climate will cut winter deaths

The effects of global warming on Britain's climate will lead to 20,000 fewer winter deaths and cut hospital admissions by two million days, according to a report today by leading scientists.

However, while warmer winters relieve pressure on the NHS, summers will become more dangerous with more cases of skin cancer, heat stroke and food poisoning - and the return to southern England of malariacarrying mosquitoes.

The Department of Health study will predict heat-related deaths are set to rise by 2,000 a year from the present rate of about 800, with skin cancer cases affecting between 5,000 and 30,000 more people each year. A warmer climate could bring positive longterm physiological changes to Britons such as thinner blood, and that there could be two million fewer days spent in hospital by 2050 as a result.

The report comes a day after weather experts said that despite an uneven start to the summer, 2002 could be the hottest year on record. Average global temperatures in 2002 could also be the highest recorded.

The Met Office said the northern hemisphere had enjoyed its warmest half year ever, with temperatures 0.73C (1.31F) above the long-term average. Met Office experts also said scientists were predicting that, depending on the level of pollution, global temperatures would rise between 1.4 and

5.9C in the next 100 years. Today's DoH report, commissioned to establish whether the NHS will be able to cope with the UK's rapidly changing weather patterns, will predict thousands of extra deaths each summer from air pollutants by 2050.

Food poisoning cases will rise by 10,000 a year and the stronger sun will bring on 2,000 more cases of cataracts. The study will conclude that the climate in Britain over the next century will bring more intense summer heatwaves, warmer winters and increased risk of flooding.