Wanted: a big-hitter to challenge Ken

There is something creepy about Ken Livingstone's trip to Cuba. While London may well be able to learn from Cuba's Olympic success, as the mayor says, the visit smacks of a junket. And although Ken has said he did not go there to pay homage to the dying Fidel Castro (as many suspected) it does look as if the mayor is hoping to reinforce his revolutionary credentials ahead of his cheesy date with Venezuela's Hugo Chavez today.

What does this excursion to Castro's Marxist redoubt say about the mayor's style of governance? In a week when London's Olympic efforts came under strain, should the mayor jaunt around the Caribbean, with us picking up the bill?

The answer is probably no, but who is going to stop him? That is the real question. Halfway through his second term, Ken is untouchable. He runs City Hall with a secretive cabal of favourites and mocks the democratic processes that were meant to hold him to account.

Castro can teach Ken nothing about clinging to power. The mayoral legislation set no limit to the number of terms an individual can occupy the office and Ken has said he wants to be there for the 2012 Olympics. That would mean at least four terms, a record unknown in respectable democracies.

Indeed, the mayor has made it clear he will stay in the job until someone beats him at the ballot box and the prospects of that are very low indeed. Why? Because no one with a chance of winning is prepared to stand against him.

Just six years into the great mayoral experiment, London finds itself with a Groundhog Day mayor. There simply isn't anyone within sight who stands a realistic chance of beating Ken in 2008.

"The reason no one will stand against Ken is simple," Sir Simon Jenkins, the veteran London commentator, said. "They don't want to be beaten."

This is the prevailing wisdom, underpinned by the facts. Almost everyone who has stood against Ken has been soundly seen off. Frank Dobson gave up a Cabinet seat to fight him in 2000 and despite the backing of the Labour party, failed miserably. Simon Hughes, once tipped as a future leader of the Liberal Democrats, was trounced and consigned to the political hinterland.

Only Steve Norris, the Rolex-wearing excar salesman, has come close. And Ken has beaten him twice now, making it virtually impossible for Norris to try again. But it's not Ken who should be blamed for stagnation at City Hall, it's the Tories.

In the summer, David Cameron announced an X Factor style contest to find a challenger who could beat Ken in 2008. The selection process was opened up to all Londoners - whether Tory party members or not - who could telephone or text message their choice.

The idea for an open primary was the brainchild of William Hague and George Osborne, who had seen primaries at work in the US and convinced David Cameron that this was the best way to show the new Conservative openess to outside ideas - and hopefully bag a major name candidate into the bargain.

Some senior shadow cabinet figures were doubtful.

The reality has so far proved less glamorous then hoped. One senior strategist admits that the mayoral headache was an early lesson for the Cameron team and that it highlighted the difference between having a bright idea and driving it through.

As this was being organised, party bosses commissioned headhunters to sound out their own dream candidates. Lord Coe, of course, was at the top of the list. The charismatic former athlete and youthful Tory grandee who had helped bring the Olympics to London may well have been a shoo-in. But he didn't want to do it.

Michael Portillo, the former Cabinet minister and nearly man of the Tory leadership, was also asked if he would take on Ken. Portillo, who is enjoying a brilliant second career as a writer and television presenter, declined. According to a Tory source, Portillo's political ardour has cooled considerably since he left parliament and he was rather enjoying life as a spectator, rather than a participant. Other names were mentioned: Frederick Forsyth, the thriller writer and rightwing polemicist; Anne Robinson, the Weakest Link star, Jeremy Clarkson, the motoring writer and television presenter, Derek Laud, the gay, black foxhunting Tory activist - the list began to take on a touch of fantasy, if not desperation. But there was one other high-profile person approached by the Tories who combined not only a willingness to take on Ken, but an ability to give him a run for his money - Nick Ferrari.

Ferrari is the populist radio presenter and columnist adored by taxi drivers for his trenchant views. When the odds for the Tories' candidate contest were assessed, Ferrari emerged as 3-1 favourite. But there was a problem. Just 24 hours before applications were due to close last August, Ferrari announced he was pulling out.

It left Cameron's X Factor contest without a big name, which was why it had been conceived in the first place. Ferrari said at the time that he could not take on the candidacy and retain his job at LBC, because broadcasting regulations would have forced him to censor his own phone-in show to avoid allegations of political bias. In fact, there was more to it than that.

Ferrari revealed that when the Conservatives approached him last summer he said: "I'm interested. Come back in 12 months and we'll talk."

But they insisted on going ahead with the timing of the text and phone-in contest in August. If Ferrari had won the candidacy it would have meant giving up his radio programme and going into limbo for 15 months before the election campaign proper started. He said:

"I love what I do at LBC and I wasn't prepared to give it up for that length of time. If we can get the timing right, I'll do it. I would relish the opportunity to run against Ken because he is totally beatable.

"After two terms people have woken up to Ken. They don't want a mayor who holds a consultation process on extending the congestion charge, finds that 70-odd per cent of people are against it and then says it's not the answer he wanted to hear and is going ahead with it anyway.

"We have seen through Ken now. The problem is the people who have been put up against him have been hopeless. But I know it can be done. Ken can be beaten, and I think I can do it."

But Ferrari lacks political experience. His profile is that of a shock jock with a rabble rousing tendency. Could he really take on an operator like Ken? The government has expanded the mayor's powers considerably since the office was introduced. The next mayor will have responsibility for planning and transport budgets bigger than some sovereign states.

It will take someone who can make the deft, often unseen, moves between officials, business and government that lead to good decisions. Lord Stevens, the most respected metropolitan police commissioner in recent memory, is seen by many as the perfect choice to stand against Ken. His pragmatism and ability to deal with competing interests distinguished him at Scotland Yard and he would inspire confidence in the crucial areas of crime and terrorism. The Tories have approached him, but he is still bogged down in the Princess Diana inquiry and the timing was all wrong. But that could change and there is still some way to go before the early summer of 2008. Big hitters have a well-founded fear of running against Ken and facing the humiliation of losing. But the last two elections he won were not landslides by any means. ken took 55 per cent of the vote to Norris's 45 per cent.

And there is an unknown factor that could work to the advantage of the Tory candidate in 2008. John Rees, national secretary of George Galloway's Respect party told me they were planning to start a selection process for a mayoral candidate after Christmas.

The prospect of Galloway running would appal Ken. The former MP who took Tower Hamlets from Labour has built up a solid vote for Respect among London's muslims. But would Galloway run? "I don't think it's in his mind at the moment," Rees said. But even if it isn't Galloway, someone from Respect will.

The mayor will also come under pressure because the election falls at a time when Labour is likely to be at a mid-term low. The combination of a swing against Labour, a splitting of a section of the traditional Labour vote by a Respect candidate and a good showing by a popular Conservative - or even Independent - could damage Ken.

Tony Travers, the writer and academic, said: "The Ken factor is very powerful, but even he can't escape the arithmetic."

The Tories say they will choose next spring. Richard Barnes, deputy leader of the Conservatives at the London Assembly may come forward, as may Nick Boles, director of the centrist think-tank, Policy Exchange, and an ally of David Cameron. We may also see Margot James, the millionaire businesswoman who fought Holborn unsuccessfully at the election as the Tory's first openly lesbian candidate.

Tom Conti, the actor, has said he will stand, if only to get a crack at killing off the congestion charge. David Ross, the founder of Carphone Warehouse, has also been linked to a mayoral bid.

Meanwhile, Ken is off to Venezuela to cement his Latin American revolutionary ties. As he flew out of Havana he said we can learn a lot from Cuba. Many, looking back on his five-day jaunt, will agree.