Unpaid soldiers will be Mugabe's final undoing

Anyone who cares about Zimbabwe and Africa may applaud Archbishop John Sentamu's call for the removal of Robert Mugabe from power, but his voice is more like one crying in the wilderness rather than a call to practical action.

Assassination, I am sure, has been considered and probably rejected for the moment. Likewise military intervention - but there are strong arguments against it in southern Africa. A more likely trigger for the collapse of the Mugabe regime is the moment when its money becomes meaningless and the government is no longer able to pay the forces of repression; the army, the police and the dreaded British-trained Central Intelligence Organisation.

That moment may have arrived. Last Thursday the Zimbabwe dollar fell from two million per US dollar in the morning to 25 million in the afternoon. A week ago soldiers rioted on the streets, attacking shops and looting the money changers who turn Zimbabwe's vanishing currency into real money and keep business faintly alive.

Unpaid soldiers could be the first crack in Mugabe's outer defences. When the lower ranks, who are understood to have voted overwhelmingly against Mugabe in the election this year, change sides or refuse to shoot protesters, he will be in real trouble. He sees himself as the ruler of Zimbabwe by right of conquest and as long as the security forces are loyal, and paid, no one can threaten that fact.

Elections were supposed to re-assert that victory, not remove him from power. Ever since March when Mugabe lost the first round of the presidential election it has been clear that he will kill, and let Zimbabwe itself die, rather than give up power. To avoid taking serious action against him, his fellow presidents in the region tried to persuade him to share power with the opposition.

A deal was signed in September but Mugabe had not the slightest intention of keeping to the letter, let alone the spirit, of the agreement. His officials even altered it after it was signed. The constitutional changes to legitimise the agreement were supposed to be published weeks ago. There is still no sign of them. More than 14,000 cases of cholera have now been reported but it would be surprising if that figure represented more than half the victims.

Most Zimbabweans have no money for medical attention. While cholera deaths may not trouble Mugabe, the fear that the disease might spread from Zimbabwe to other parts of southern Africa with the thousands of Zimbabweans who leave on foot every day is concentrating minds in the region.

The regional governments have a very long way to travel politically if they are to make a positive contribution to the Zimbabwe crisis, military or otherwise. Until now, with the honourable exceptions of Botswana and Zambia, they have protected Mugabe from what they see as Western bullying.

But there is a new tone coming from South Africa, the big boy on the block. Thabo Mbeki, official negotiator between Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai, the opposition leader, is no longer president of South Africa. The new regime is taking a more urgent line.

But even if the new South African government decided that the Archbishop of York is right and Mugabe must go, his physical removal would be fraught with danger. Does South Africa have overwhelming military superiority if the Zimbabwe army decided to fight back? Would other countries in the region, like oil-rich and militarily powerful Angola, fight to defend the Mugabe regime? South Africa is in no mood to take those risks just now.