UK bookies cash in on US election

BRITISH bookmakers and betting exchanges are set to take almost £20m worth of trades on the contest between George W Bush and John Kerry by the time the US Presidential election results come in on Tuesday night.

Many high-flyers in the financial markets - including, it is rumoured, hedge fund billionaire George Soros - have been placing bets on Bush-Kerry through firms over here, because such betting is not permitted in the US.

The biggest slice of business is going to Dublin-based betting exchange Tradesports which had taken $15m (£8.2m) of trades on the election by yesterday and is hoping to reach $20m by next week.

Tradesports chief executive John Delaney said digital odds offered by his firm's customers imply that Bush has a 54.2% to 56% probability of winning. 'We are seeing some of the largest individual trades we have ever seen on this exchange, including $100,000 from one client as an initial trade,' he said.

London-based betting exchange Betfair had matched £3.1m worth of bets on the overall result by yesterday. It was quoting the Republicans to win at the equivalent in fixed-odds terms of 3-4 on, with the Democrats at the equivalent of 5-4 against.

Spread betting firms have also been taking a stream of bets on Bush and Kerry. At IG Index, one Russian client stands to make £30,000 if Bush wins while other traders have positions of more than £1000-a-vote on the electoral college. At Cantor Index, its Spreadfair offshoot was yesterday quoting Bush to win 275-280 votes in the electoral college, and Kerry to win 258-263.

Cantor's David Buik said: 'We've taken five times as much business on this US election as we took on Bush-Gore four years ago.'

Fixed-odds bookie Blue Square had taken £98,000 of bets by yesterday-and plans to keep quoting odds all the time as the results come in on Tuesday night.

Betting prices quoted by Tradesports, in particular, are frequently covered by the American media as an alternative to the opinion polls for gauging the fortunes of the two candidates.

That has opened up the intriguing possibility that some partisan elements in the US might place large bets on their candidate on this side of the Atlantic in order to generate favourable publicity back home.