Tories sense a crack in the Teflon

Iain Duncan Smith will use this weekend's Tory spring gathering to launch a new offensive on a Prime Minister he believes is vulnerable for the first time.

At the Conservative Party's spring conference, the leadership aims to build on opinion polls suggesting Tony Blair's personal popularity is waning in spite of his "Teflon Tony" reputation.

With last autumn's party event overshadowed by war in Afghanistan, it will be the new Tory leader's first big domestic test in front of the party faithful.

Mr Duncan Smith, in his conference speech at Harrogate on Sunday, will try to reach beyond them, with some of his own supporters feeling that after six months as leader he has still to make an impact on voters.

While polls signal growing dissatisfaction with Mr Blair, Labour's lead over the Tories is still large. On 2 May council elections will take place across England, including London.

This weekend shadow ministers will revive the message that the Tories are a one-nation party, a view swept aside during the era of Margaret Thatcher and William Hague. They will focus on public services, arguing that long NHS waiting lists, a teacher shortage and a shoddy rail service hurt the old and poor most.

Crime is likely to be a big issue, with shadow home secretary Oliver Letwin speaking shortly before Mr Duncan Smith. Polls suggest fear of street crime is up as a public concern.

An ICM poll published yesterday showed the Tory share of the vote up four points in the last month to 34 per cent, with Labour down four to 43 per cent.

The first significant surge in the party's vote for months is thought to be due partly to increasing public alarm over street robberies.

The event will also focus on sleaze, and Labour's use of spin doctors following the Jo Moore fiasco.

Shadow health secretary Liam Fox is expected to say, in a speech tomorrow: "It is entirely consistent with the narcissistic nature of New Labour that they are more concerned with how things appear than how they really are."