Tories fall behind Davis

The battle for the Tory leadership swung heavily in favour of David Davis today.

The shadow home secretary emerges as the clear favourite to succeed Michael Howard in the latest opinion poll.

The survey highlights his popularity among the Tory rank and file, with a total of 54 per cent of them naming Mr Davis as either their first or second choice to take over when Mr Howard steps down.

The scale of his support will dismay more moderate Conservatives, who are still searching for a candidate to run against him.

The YouGov poll of 615 party members and 1,005 Conservative voters, published in the Daily Telegraph today, suggests that a clear majority of Tories believe Mr Davis is the party's best option.

His popularity hints that grassroots Tories want a candidate from the centre-Right of the party, who will take a tough stance on issues such as law and order and immigration. Tory MPs tipped as possible rivals for the leadership - David Cameron, Liam Fox, Kenneth Clarke and Sir Malcolm Rifkind - lag behind him in popular support.

The poll suggests that former Chancellor Mr Clarke would face another crushing defeat if he contested the leadership for a third time, with only 19 per cent of those polled saying he was their first or second choice. More than half said they were staunchly opposed to him taking the helm.

Mr Cameron, 38, the party's education spokesman, comes a good second behind Mr Davis at 30 per cent, while Mr Fox trails in at third, with the backing of 24 per cent of those polled. Sir Malcolm, a former foreign secretary who is also seen as a realistic potential challenger, came in fifth with 13 per cent.

The level of support for Mr Davis could partially reflect the fact that he is the only MP so far to make it clear he wants to stand.

Tory insiders have pointed out that Mr Davis is known to enjoy widespread support among Tory members but is less popular within the Parliamentary party.

It means new leadership rules giving MPs the final say over who becomes the new leader could work against him.